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Top Performing Stocks in January (Seasonality)

January is not a good month for the stock market overall. The S&P 500 is usually flat to lower during the month. BUT, there are individual stocks that excel in January, rising at least 70% of the time and producing as much as 17% gains during the month. Stocks mentioned: EQC, FAX, CYTR, ALKS, DIS, CRUS, LEN, HRS, ERIC, ALK, XLNX and OSK.

Seasonality is the study of how assets perform at certain times of the year. The stocks below show a strong tendency to rise in January, historically. That doesn’t mean they will rally this January, though. Seasonality is best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and specific trading strategies, such as the ones discussed in the Stock Market Swing Trading Video Course.

Before getting into the best historical January stock performers, stocks as a whole, as gauged by S&P 500 index, tend to be mediocre in January. Over the last 20 years, the index has moved higher 50% of the time (number on top of January column), and has dropped by an average of -0.5% (number at bottom of January column).

January seasonality for S&P500

StockCharts.com

Strong Seasonality Stocks for January

The statistics below are based on the historic monthly opening and closing prices. Therefore, gains or losses within the month may be larger than those disclosed below. For example, a statistic may say the biggest rally on a monthly basis was 15%, but during the month the stock could have been up 20%, but dropped to only finish the month up 15% (intra-month losses could also be bigger). This is why it is also recommended traders combine these statistics with other strategies, which help control risk and lock in profits.

Buying at the open and close of the month is also somewhat arbitrary. There are more precise times to take trades. Focus on seasonal opportunities that align with strategies you are already using.

This is the raw data. How you interpret it, and what you opt to do with it, is up to you.

All stocks do at least 500K in average daily volume.  Stocks with average or median gains of less than 3% are typically excluded.

82% Rally Rate

Equity Commonwealth (EQC)

Price has rallied 23 out of 28 years, or 82%.

Average January gain is 3.64%.

In the rising months (23) the average gain has been: 5.19%.

In declining months (5) the average loss is -3.5%.

Biggest gain is 21.41%, and biggest drop is -6.38%.



79% Rally Rate

Aberdeen Asia-Pacific Income Fund (FAX)

Price has rallied 22 out of 28 years, or 79%.

Average January gain is 2.95%.

In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 4.2%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -1.62%.

Biggest gain is 11.07%, and biggest drop is -4.1%.




CytRx Corporation (CYTR)

Price has rallied 22 out of 28 years, or 79%.

Average January gain is 17.61%.

In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 27.4%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -18.31%.

Biggest gain is 99.91%, and biggest drop is -35.19%.




77% Rally Rate

Alkermes (ALKS)

Price has rallied 20 out of 26 years, or 77%.

Average January gain is 10.15%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 18.32%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -17.08%.

Biggest gain is 40.29%, and biggest drop is -56.67%.




75% Rally Rate

Walt Disney Company (DIS)

Price has rallied 21 out of 28 years, or 75%.

Average January gain is 3.97%.

In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 7.63%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -6.99%.

Biggest gain is 24.13%, and biggest drop is -8.87%.



74% Rally Rate

Cirrus Logic (CRUS)

Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.

Average January gain is 9.55%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 16.69%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -10.84%.

Biggest gain is 50.67%, and biggest drop is -20.49%.



71% Rally Rate

Lennar Corporation (LEN)

Price has rallied 20 out of 28 years, or 71%.

Average January gain is 4.55%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 8.63%.

In declining months (8) the average loss is -5.65%.

Biggest gain is 28.71%, and biggest drop is -13.74%.




Harris Corporation (HRS)

Price has rallied 20 out of 28 years, or 71%.

Average January gain is 4.64%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 9.29%.

In declining months (8) the average loss is -6.96%.

Biggest gain is 28.29%, and biggest drop is -15.89%.





Ericsson (ERIC)

Price has rallied 20 out of 28 years, or 71%.

Average January gain is 4.48%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 9.09%.

In declining months (8) the average loss is -7.05%.

Biggest gain is 30.06%, and biggest drop is -16.87%.




Alaska Air Group (ALK)

Price has rallied 20 out of 28 years, or 71%.

Average January gain is 4.03%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 9.25%.

In declining months (8) the average loss is -9.03%.

Biggest gain is 25.31%, and biggest drop is -12.56%.



70% Win Rate

Xilinx Inc. (XLNX)

Price has rallied 19 out of 27 years, or 70%.

Average January gain is 7.67%.

In the rising months (19) the average gain has been: 12.68%.

In declining months (8) the average loss is -4.23%.

Biggest gain is 40.23%, and biggest drop is -10.88%.



OskKosk Corporation (OSK)

Price has rallied 19 out of 27 years, or 70%.

Average January gain is 6.52%.

In the rising months (19) the average gain has been: 12.67%.

In declining months (8) the average loss is -8.08%.

Biggest gain is 34.4%, and biggest drop is -18.78%.



Final Word on the Strong January Seasonality Stocks

This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these statistics.

Each stock has a different risk profile. While the ‘average gain’ statistic is a key metric, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Making 7% may seem attractive but when looking at the volatility it may be more than you are willing to handle. Therefore, look at the all the data when deciding what to trade. Also, apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock trading course, because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you can use.

Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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