Home > These Stocks Tend to Perform Well in October (Seasonality)

These Stocks Tend to Perform Well in October (Seasonality)

October is a good month for stocks overall, and these stocks tend to do even better than the market, rising at least 74% of the time and producing as much as 8.3% gains on average. Stocks mentioned: $AAPL, $MSFT, $ADBE, $VOD, $SYY, $CB, $ADM, $EIX, $CA, $ALK, $GPS, $ADP.

Seasonality is the study of how assets perform at certain times of the year. The stocks below have shown a strong tendency to rise in October, historically. That doesn’t mean they will rally this October, though. Seasonality is best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and specific trading strategies, such as the ones discussed in the Stock Market Swing Trading Video Course.

Before getting into the best historical October stock performers, stocks as a whole (as gauged by S&P 500 index) tend to do well in October. Over the last 20 years, the index has moved higher 65% of the time (number on top of October column), and moved up by an average of 1.9% (number at bottom of October column).

stock market seasonality for October
StockCharts.com

Strong Seasonality Stocks for October

The statistics below are based on the historic monthly opening and closing prices. Therefore, gains or losses within the month may be larger than those disclosed below. For example, a statistic may say the biggest rally on a monthly basis was 15%, but during the month the stock could have been up 20%, but dropped to only finish the month up 15% (intra-month losses could also be bigger). This is why it is also recommended traders combine these statistics with other strategies, which help control risk and lock in profits.

Buying at the open and close of the month is also somewhat arbitrary. There are more precise times to take trades. Focus on seasonal opportunities that align with strategies you are already using.

This is the raw data. How you interpret it, and what you opt to do with it, is up to you.

All stocks do at least 500K in average daily volume.  All stocks with an average or median gains of less than 3% have been excluded.

81% Rally Rate

Sysco Corporation (SYY)

Price has rallied 22 out of 27 years, or 81%.SYY october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 4.01%.

In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 6.08%.

In declining months (5) the average loss is -5.12%.

Biggest gain is 14.6%, and biggest drop is -14.41%.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

Price has rallied 22 out of 27 years, or 81%.ADP october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 4.24%.

In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 6.48%.

In declining months (5) the average loss is -5.59%.

Biggest gain is 22.32%, and biggest drop is –18.24%.

78% Rally Rate

Vodafone Group (VOD)

Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.VOD october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 5.87%.

In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 8.8%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -4.37%.

Biggest gain is 24.09%, and biggest drop is -12.83%.

The Gap (GPS)

Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.GPS october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 6.01%.

In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 9.99%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -7.91%.

Biggest gain is 28.63%, and biggest drop is -26.8%.

Alaska Air Group (ALK)

Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.ALK october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 7.38%.

In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 10.87%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -4.86%.

Biggest gain is 25.65%, and biggest drop is -7.72%.

Adobe Systems (ADBE)

Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.ADBE october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 7.61%.

In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 12.07%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -7.99%.

Biggest gain is 26.79%, and biggest drop is -32.51%.

Apple Inc (AAPL)

Price has rallied 21 out of 27 years, or 78%.AAPL october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 7.2%.

In the rising months (21) the average gain has been: 12.42%.

In declining months (6) the average loss is -11.06%.

Biggest gain is 35.06%, and biggest drop is -23.98%.

74% Rally Rate

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.MSFT october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 5.46%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 9.09%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -4.92%.

Biggest gain is 24.94%, and biggest drop is -16.32%.

Edison International (EIX)

Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.EIX october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 4.36%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 7.93%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -5.84%.

Biggest gain is 25.24%, and biggest drop is -10.81%.

The Chubb Corporation (CB)

Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.CB october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 4.78%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 7.36%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -2.61%.

Biggest gain is 22.09%, and biggest drop is -5.24%.

CA Inc (CA)

Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.CA october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 8.36%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 13.99%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -7.73%.

Biggest gain is 54.73%, and biggest drop is -12.65%.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)

Price has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.ADM october seasonality

Average October gain, for all years, is 5.37%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 8.68%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -4.09%.

Biggest gain is 27.47%, and biggest drop is -8.02%.

Final Word on the Strong October Seasonality Stocks

This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these statistics.

Each stock has a different risk profile. While the ‘average gain’ statistic is a key metric, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Making 7% may seem attractive but when looking at the volatility it may be more than you are willing to handle. Therefore, look at the all the data when deciding what to trade. Also, apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock trading course, because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you can use.

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Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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