Home > These Stocks Perform Well in July (Seasonality)

These Stocks Perform Well in July (Seasonality)

These stocks have a long history of performing well in July, rising as much as 85% of the time and jumping by up to 9%. Stocks mentioned: $AMGN $BPL $HCP $HCN $HOG $KIM

Seasonality is the study of how assets perform at certain times of the year. The stocks below have shown a strong tendency to rise in July, historically. That doesn’t mean they will rally this July, though. Seasonality is best used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and specific trading strategies, such as the ones discussed in the Stock Market Swing Trading Video Course.

Before getting into the best historical July stock performers, most stocks tend to be pretty flat, to slightly higher, in July. Over the last 19 years the S&P 500 index has moved up in July 47% of the time (number above columns), edging out a small average profit of 0.3% (number at bottom of columns). In more recent history, July has a been a pretty month. For example, over the last 10 years, it is up 60% of the time, increasing on average 1.8%. Over the last 5 years, it is up 80% of the time, increasing 2% on average. So long-term, July hasn’t been so good, but more recently it has been decent.

S&P 500 July seasonality
StockCharts.com

Strong Seasonality Stocks for July

The statistics below are based on the historic monthly opening and closing prices. Therefore, gains or losses within the month may be larger than those disclosed below. For example, a statistic may say the biggest rally on a monthly basis was 15%, but during the month the stock could have been up 20%, but dropped to only finish the month up 15% (intra-month losses could also be bigger). This is why it is also recommended traders combine these statistics with other strategies, which help control risk and lock in profits.

Buying at the open and close of the month is also somewhat arbitrary. There are more precise times to take trades. Focus on seasonal opportunities that align with strategies you are already using.

This is the raw data. How you interpret it, and what you opt to do with it, is up to you.

All stocks do at least 400K in average daily volume.

85% Rally Rate

Amgen Inc (AMGN)

AMGN seasonality for julyPrice has rallied 23 out of 27 years, or 85%.

Average July gain, for all years, is 9.62%.

In the rising months (23) the average gain has been: 12.2%.

In declining months (4) the average loss is -5.21%.

Biggest gain is 32.79%, and biggest drop is -7.56%.

Buckeye Partners LP (BPL)

BPL seasonality for julyPrice has rallied 23 out of 27 years, or 85%.

Average July gain, for all years, is 3.34%.

In the rising months (23) the average gain has been: 4.23%.

In declining months (4) the average loss is -1.81%.

Biggest gain is 9.12%, and biggest drop is -3.34%.

81% Rally Rate

HCP Inc (HCP)

HCP seasonality for julyPrice has rallied 22 out of 27 years, or 81%.

Average July gain, for all years, is 3.76%.

In the rising months (22) the average gain has been: 5.74%.

In declining months (5) the average loss is -4.96%.

Biggest gain is 21.55%, and biggest drop is -7.24%.

80% Rally Rate

Welltower Inc (HCN)

HCN seasonality for julyPrice has rallied 20 out of 25 years, or 80%.

Average July gain, for all years, is 4.01%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 5.88%.

In declining months (5) the average loss is -3.5%.

Biggest gain is 17.47%, and biggest drop is -9.03%.

74% Rally Rate

Harley-Davidson  Inc (HOG)

HOG seasonality for julyPrice has rallied 20 out of 27 years, or 74%.

Average July gain, for all years, is 6.53%.

In the rising months (20) the average gain has been: 10.54%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -4.91%.

Biggest gain is 39.41%, and biggest drop is -11.5%.

72% Rally Rate

Kimco Realty Corporation (KIM)

AMGN seasonality for julyPrice has rallied 18 out of 25 years, or 72%.

Average July gain, for all years, is 3.71%.

In the rising months (18) the average gain has been: 6.37%.

In declining months (7) the average loss is -3.12%.

Biggest gain is 12.64%, and biggest drop is -9.84%.

Final Word on the Strong July Seasonality Stocks

This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these statistics.

Each stock has a different risk profile. While the ‘average gain’ statistic is a key metric, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Making 7% may seem attractive but when looking at the volatility it may be more than you are willing to handle. Therefore, look at the all the data when deciding what to trade. Also, apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock trading course, because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you can use.

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Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).

By Cory Mitchell, CMT

Follow me on Twitter @corymitc and check out our Facebook page.

 

Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

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