Recent Stock Market Swing Trade Examples and Explanations
It continues to be a great time for swing trading. Here are some recent trade ideas that were publicly posted my TradingView feed. It has been a while since I posted “swing trading examples” on VantagePointTrading; the last one was in November. Yet as mentioned above, you can always check my TradingView profile for swing trade examples as I do try to post regularly there.
I don’t post all my trades, but as I am doing my analysis a couple times a week I try to post one or two charts that capture my attention. Some months there are a lot, other months there aren’t. This could be due to market conditions, or I’m busy and not posting my findings.
Below is a sampling of recent trades, including wins, losses, and trades that didn’t trigger. All teach us something.
The methods used to find trades like these are covered in the Stock Market Swing Trading Video Course. The course covers how to find and swing trade US and Canadian stocks. The methods also work with stocks on other exchanges, although in the course I only show how to use stock screeners for US and Canadian stocks. If you trade another market, you’ll need to find a stock screener for your market.
I recommend only spending about 20 minutes each night, or even only one to three evenings a week, looking for opportunities. The course shows you how. Typically the good trades will pop out within the first 20 minutes of looking. If you have to spend hours finding a trade via one of the screening methods, it probably isn’t all that compelling of a trade. Keep it time efficient.
Recent Swing Trades
Here are some recent trades, with a bit of information on each. Hit the Maximize button on the charts below to see a bigger version of the chart. Hit “Esc” or the maximize button again to shrink the chart and keep reading.
These examples aren’t meant to be trade signals, but rather a supplemental learning tool to be combined with the Course. They show slight variations of the strategies covered and also just provide more examples. The hope is that more examples will aid in understanding and implementing the strategies better.
I live in Canada, so I post a lot of Canadian stocks. The concepts are the same whether trading US or Canadian stocks. No matter what stock we are trading, we wait for the setup, then place our stop loss and targets.
You will notice that all the trades on the list this time are long trades. That is because most people are buying and not shorting, and since the markets were in uptrends there were more buying opportunities than shorting opportunities. That said the TSX Composite, the Dow Jones Industrial, and the S&P 500 are all in strong reversal trade setups right now. This indicates another strong leg down, setting up a lot more shorting opportunities in the coming weeks. Just something to think about. In the Swing Trading Course, I cover how to trade whether prices are rising or falling.
This stock has been strong, in a relentless uptrend since last summer. The pullbacks have been brief and followed by rallies to new highs. After a strong rally higher (what we want to see), the price pulled back into our trade area in mid-February. There is a consolidation there, but since we can see quite clearly from prior price action that the pullback wasn’t lasting very long I was watching for a breakout above the descending line on the pullback. The price breaking out above the trendline also coincided with the price breaking above a four-day consolidation. Any reasonably placed target would have been hit providing a greater than 2:1 reward:risk. By 2:1, I mean that the trade allowed for risking $1 to make $2, or $1000 to make $2000, etc.
Tormont Industries (TIH.TO)
There were a couple things compelling about this trade.
- A very fast and large rally late last year, and then a slow and shallow pullback into early 2018 (velocity and magnitude–very important).
- Massive false breakout in early February which saw the price rapidly cover back to the upside.
- Upside consolidation breakout following a false breakout.
- Decent reward:risk of 2.5:1 even if the price only makes it back to prior high.
Now this trade may look a little different than the very clean trading opportunities shown in the course. That early-February selloff was big…but it didn’t even last a day. Instead of telling us to sell, it told as that buyer were willing to step in and push the price right back up. To me, that said there was probably more upside left. BUT, since it was a big selloff, be conservative with the target. If you unsure how much gas a stock has a left, especially after some big moves like this, then place a target just below the prior high if going long (or just above the prior low if it’s a short trade).
Here’s how the reward:risk looked. Would have hit a 2.5:1 target handily (3:1 would have also filled), and if using a trailing stop loss, the stop loss is moving up to near breakeven.
Note that the stop loss goes below the consolidation, not below the major low in this case. Because the price recovered so quickly it is unlikely that that price will head back to that false breakout low. Think about why certain patterns and price moves happen…this will aid in making you more adaptable when each trade looks slightly different. Once the price breaks the consolidation to the upside, placing a stop loss below the consolidation is fine. Placing it below the false breakout low would be bad because that is SO far away, which would destroy any possibility of a decent reward:risk.
Intertain Group (ITX.TO)
A more classic trend trade setup here. Strong rally into October, then a hesitant pullback. Could have gone long on a break above the pullback trendline, or on an upside breakout of the consolidation mid-February.
Using the consolidation breakout, a 2:1 target would already be hit. That would have required placing the target slightly above the prior high which is suitable in this case.
There was also the option of the using a trailing stop loss. That trailing stop loss is now above $15, so a likely profit here no matter what exit method was used.
Hammon Power Solutions (HPS.A.TO)
This one hasn’t done too much yet. It broke out, but isn’t anywhere near a target yet.
Here is what the reward:risk looks like with a target placed just above the prior high at 10.45, which is reasonable for a stock like this on the trajectory it is on. If it keeps dropping we will be stopped out. That is why we try to make more on winners than we lose on losers…because we won’t win them all.
Pulse Seismic (PSD.TO)
There are also trades that never happen. Zoom in and you will see that the top of the consolidation is 3.20. Waiting for a breakout above the consolidation means entering at 3.22 per strategy guidelines. This stock still hasn’t gotten there and is just wiggling around. Do your own analysis and decide if it is still valid, or if the entry would now be different based on the price action since the orginal trade was posted.
Here is another trade that never happened, and won’t happen. It also shows the importance of waiting for a move back in the trending direction before jumping in. In order for this trade to trigger we were waiting for a breakout above the consolidation. That never happened, and instead the stock plummeted. Always wait for your signal to get in, as it will save you from pre-maturely entering and then having to deal with something like this. So this isn’t a losing trade, it is simply a trade that never triggered.
Exchange Income (EIF.TO)
There are also losing trades. The wins are bigger than the losses, and once we are good at the strategies we should be winning over 50% of our trades. That means overall profits, even though every trade won’t be profitable.
Admittedly, this wasn’t the best trade in the first place. That was a very deep and sustained drop in 2017. While the rally in 2016 was bigger, after a such a strong drop I could have found better opportunities to go long in. The price had been rallying again, and I was hoping to catch some upside in that rally. The reward:risk was good, but ultimately there was more selling left. This is a stock “in conflict,” meaning there are strong forces on both the buy and sell side. Stocks in conflict are best left alone. A good reminder of that for me.
TMX Group (X.TO)
Let’s look at one more. This one was in a strong uptrend and then formed a rounded bottom. All of you that have taken the Swing Trading Course should recognize this pattern and see the entry. We had a consolidation breakout to the upside as well as a pullback trendline break once the setup was in place. 3.5:1 target easy hit, and the target was quite conservative so possibility for more.
There are always lots of swing trading opportunities out there, both on the Canadian and US exchanges. The above trades are just a sampling of the many current and recent trades that are out there. If you go through the trade ideas posted on TradingView you will see winners, losers, and ideas that didn’t trigger. That is trading. The important thing is keeping the wins bigger than the losses.
You also have options on the exit. If a stock gives you a nice profit but doesn’t hit your target you can implement a trailing stop loss. Some of those trades that look like losers were actually small winners, depending on how you traded it. One trade where you make 3:1 makes up for three losses. If you win half your trades, or more, it’s possible to do very well.
If you are in the US, focus on US stocks because there are a lot more trades to choose from and greater volume. If you are a Canadian trader, there are certainly opportunities in Canada but you may also want to consider trading US stocks as well.
By Cory Mitchell, CMT