Recent and Current Forex Weekly Chart Trades
Forex weekly chart strategies are by far the least time-consuming of all my trading methods, and the returns and daily interest are well worth the small amount of effort each weekend. Here are some recent trade examples, along with pairs to watch for upcoming setups in.
The strategies used for the trades below are covered in detail in Forex Strategies Course for Weekly Charts.
Here are my current and recent trades (taken in the last couple months). I will also include some currency pairs that haven’t provided a trade signal yet, but could in the next several weeks.
This should not be viewed as a comprehensive list of trades for all the strategies covered (I have missed a couple trades due to vacations, etc). You may have taken some other trades you considered valid (based on the course), and you may have opted not to take some of the trades I took. That is fine. Ultimately, you need to develop your confidence and take the trades that you think are best, and that means sometimes we may disagree. Me and some of my friends have similar strategies, but based on how we analyze the price we sometimes end up in different trades or with conflicting opinions. Again, that is fine. On a particular trade it doesn’t matter whether you and I (or anyone) agree, what really matters, over many trades, is if you are profitable. Let your results be your guide (nothing else!) in determining whether you are making good decisions or not.
Forex Weekly Chart Trades
Small red lines mark entries and exits. Arrows specify direction.
CADJPY – Closed. +523 pips (plus interest)
Opened May 8. Closed August 2 via trailing stop loss.
AUDJPY – Closed. +420.8 pips (plus interest)
Opened June 12. Closed August 9 via trailing stop loss.
For the current trades below, green dotted line marks entry price and red dotted line marks current stop loss (which will be trailed). Arrow marks direction and timing of entry. Profit/loss are constantly changing as these are open trades.
AUDCAD – Open. In the money (+43 pips) and collecting daily interest.
It is easy to get distracted by all the long tails on the candles near my trade area. But I don’t mention long tails in the course, so you can assume I don’t care about them (that assumption would be correct). We have a strong down week into our rising trendline (couple candles before my arrow). We then have a strong up candle the following week. I didn’t take a long trade right away. I waited a couple weeks and saw that the price nearly completely erased the down week (on a closing basis). Combined with the other evidence, and the daily interest, I took the long. It isn’t a “textbook” engulfing pattern, but we did see a strong reversal of the down week at a support area.
USDRUB – Open. In the money (+500 pips) and collecting daily interest.
I always keep an especially close eye on highest interest rate currencies, so I don’t miss an opportunity to buy should a trade signal arise. High interest currencies include MXN, TRY, PLN, ZAR and RUB, as well as some others. Note that we never just enter these trades for the interest, there must be a valid trade setup that allows us to buy these currencies so we can collect the interest AND likely profit from the direction of the trade. [Not all currencies are worth trading though, so I stick to the ones with liquidity. To see current interest rates, check the interest rate tab on TradingEconomics. You can also sort the results by column to see which have high or low interest rates.]
Shorting the USDRUB means we are buying RUB (selling USD), the much higher interest currency. Since the USD has been declining against the RUB, it makes sense to short the USD (buy RUB) when then opportunity arises. In June the price had a minor pullback against the downtrend. When it started to drop lower and provided a short signal, I shorted the USDRUB.
GBPUSD – Open Out the money (-50 pips) and collecting daily interest.
This could have easily been missed. July 9 we have a strong up week, but then the price drifts sideways with a slight spike up at the end of July (but price still closed within the consolidation). We then have a couple down weeks which erase the entire up week (and break below the consolidation). Take the short trade within a long-term downtrend.
To be honest, I feel this would be a better one to hold off on, and maybe wait for a Late to the Party Entry (more confirmation of a down move). The price has been in “drift mode” to the upside, and there is no reason why it couldn’t make one more drift up, stopping me out. The potential reward still justifies the risk, but just something to be aware of. The movement earlier in the downtrend was much nicer, when the pullbacks where shorter in duration. The trade is valid and still solid in my opinion, but just like we will discuss in the USDCHF example below, it is important to be aware when a pair is in drift or choppy mode…during such times it is harder to make money. I am expecting the downtrend to reassert itself, which would end this drift. But if the price tries to drop and can’t, it is likely we are in for several more weeks or months of the meandering price action (not ideal…we make much more money when the price is make big trending moves).
Oil – Open. More than $2.70 on side, per contract.
I should point out that Forex Weekly Course covers some specifics for trading the weekly charts, but the entry methods can used in other markets and on other time frames. Recognize this trade setup? This is a trade setup covered in course…and it occurred in the oil market, on the daily time frame. I am still in this one and riding it down. You can even use the weekly trailing stop loss technique (based on prior week high/low), even if trading on the daily chart. Stop loss has been trailed down from its original position.
USDCHF – Open. Out the money (-60 pips) and collecting daily interest.
In the course, I used the USDCHF as an example of a pair that is currently choppy, and therefore not ideally suited to a trend trade…which most of our trades will be. The USDCHF did have an intriguing setup the last week of July, though. The price had fallen to a prior support area (slight false breakout below prior low) and then had a huge bullish engulfing pattern. This was a valid trade. The only consideration to make was whether this typically choppy pair could stage a moderate rally. So far it is still stuck near the bottom of the range, but has not been stopped out, daily interest has been collected the entire time and there is still a possibility of a rally (nothing has changed since the original setup about 1 month ago).
On the negative side, we can see that the price can chop around for many weeks on end, not making much progress. This increases the chance of being stopped out with little or no profit (or a loss). We want to avoid pairs like that. On the positive size, the price is near the bottom of a range that extends back to late 2015. If the price does start rallying it could be in for a nice pop, combined with some daily interest.
There is no right or wrong. You use your best judgement and decide if you will put your money on the line or not. As you can see, I opted to trade it. The main reason was that when I filmed the course the USDCHF was moving in a triangle meaning that buying near the rising trendline would have left very little upside movement to the top of the range. But since the price has now fallen all the way to the bottom of the range, we have more room for the price to move back to the top of the range (more room means more profit potential). We still have the issue that this pair is pretty choppy, though, which makes it a judgement call.
Forex Weekly Trades to Watch for In Upcoming Weeks
Watching for short in EURPLN…this one could develop within the next few weeks.
EURJPY. Watch for downside breakout from consolidation. (The concern here is that this move up is very lengthy in duration…typically it is easier to trade when the trend is seeing quick pullbacks and extended moves in the trending direction. It still warrants keeping an eye on. A false break out the top of the consolidation would help confirm the downside breakout trade if it develops.)
NZDUSD. Would like to see a bit more of a drop (preferably a slow drop, showing sellers are losing steam) followed by a valid setup for a long trade.
USDCAD. Need a bounce and then a valid signal to go short.
AUDJPY. Another long could set up in the not too distant future.
The USDMXN has had a sharp move down in 2017. This is likely a downtrend. Watching for pullbacks to short. I don’t expect a valid trade setup to occur for a few months though.
USDPLN. Waiting on a pullback to short…but it could be awhile.
AUDUSD. Will likely take a couple months, but waiting on a pullback and valid setup to buy.
By Cory Mitchell, CMT