The US dollar bearish tone continues into the NFP week, as reflected by stronger EUR/USD, GBP/USD, or AUD/USD. The day ahead is packed with important economic data.
Today is the first day of the trading month and the first day after the long weekend marked by Memorial Day in the United States and a bank holiday in most of Europe. As such, financial markets will come alive slowly, with plenty of important economic events ahead.
June started just how May ended – with a weak dollar and strong equities. The German DAX index is higher 0.75%, trading above 15,500, the FTSE 100 sits comfortably above 7,000 points, and the US futures point to a solid start for the main American indices too.
The US dollar continues its decline, unable to hold onto any gains. Last Friday’s PCE data triggered a move higher in the dollar, but it turned out to be a false one, as by the end of the day, all gains were erased.
As for the commodity markets, the WTI crude oil price threatens to break higher ahead of the OPEC-JMMC meetings that begin today. Gold trades with a bid tone as well, holding above $1,900.
The day is packed with important economic data. The RBA rate statement in Asia brought nothing new for the Australian dollar traders, as the central bank kept the policy unchanged.
During the London session, the focus sits with the manufacturing PMIs in the Euro area and the United Kingdom, as well as with the CPI flash estimates on continental Europe.
Later in the North American session, the ISM Manufacturing is expected to show further expansion of the sector, forecasted at 60.8 for the previous month. Also, two Fed members are giving a speech, potentially moving the dollar.
Markets to Watch
Dax, GBP/USD, USD/CHF – markets in focus today.
The Dax is in a bullish formation that threatens to break higher. The price action resembles an ascending triangle, and the measured move points to further advances. What bulls would like to see here is a daily close above 15,600 as a confirmation of the upside pressure.
A similar pattern forms on the GBP/USD pair. We see the pair consolidating against horizontal resistance and testing the 1.4250 area. The price action remains bullish at 1.4150, and only a move below may trigger some weakness.
A falling wedge broke higher on the USD/CHF chart, and now the market retests the upper trendline. The low below 0.8950 is key to any bullish scenario, as it must hold for bulls to take control. A move above 0.9050 points to further strength.
Winners and Losers
The US dollar’s bearish trend continues, while the euro and the Australian dollar trade with a bid tone.