The US dollar pressures its peers, although the FOMC minutes did not mention tapering. The focus shifts to the earnings season and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium in August.
The Dow Jones declined yesterday despite there being no mention of tapering of asset purchases in the FOMC minutes, which were not as hawkish as those from June
Although it corrected yesterday, the US stock market remains close to its all-time highs. In fact, the Nasdaq 100 index posted a new high yesterday just before the FOMC minutes were released.
In Europe, the German DAX index opened lower by about 1%, as did the FTSE 100. The Spanish Ibex was down even more, about 1.5% at the start of the trading day.
Crude oil has lost more than $5/barrel since the OPEC+ meeting failed to agree on future supply. However, despite the move lower, oil remains bid while trading above $70. Precious metals also remain bid, with gold holding above $1,800
The focus today is on Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is releasing its monetary policy meeting accounts, the equivalent of the FOMC minutes, but the market participants are keen to find out the outcome of the central bank’s strategy review.
While not part of today’s economic calendar, it is expected to be out at 14:30 CET and be presented by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Rumours have it that the ECB may signal a shift in its inflation-targeting framework, just like the Fed did one year ago.
Markets to Watch
Dow Jones, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY– markets in focus today.
Dow Jones is in danger of forming a triple top pattern. The market failed to exceed the 34,800 mark three times in a row and looks weak heading into the second half of the year. A move below 33,200 puts further pressure to the downside, as the previous higher low would be broken.
The EUR/USD is at key support. For more than six months, it has failed to recover from the area, and a move below suggests a possible head and shoulders pattern with the measured move pointing to 1.12 and below.
The EUR/JPY pair looks even weaker than the EUR/USD. This market climbed since the pandemic started last year, but it did form a rising wedge pattern on its move up. Recently, the wedge was broken and retested, and the minimum distance the price travels after a wedge is half of the wedge’s distance, suggesting 124 is on the cards.
Winners and Losers
The euro is weak across the board, while the Japanese yen flexes its muscles.