WTI crude oil trades above $76 and remains bullish. Higher oil prices suggest inflation may not be transitory after all. ISM Non-Manufacturing in focus later in the North American session.
As the United States ends the long weekend after the Independence Day holiday, financial markets are slowly coming back to life. The WTI crude oil price climbed close to $77 on the back of OPEC+ failing to increase supply, as demand is expected to rise in the second half of the year.
Higher oil prices typically translate into higher inflation, and thus it may mean that inflation is not transitory after all. Therefore market participants must adapt to rising oil prices as the trend will likely continue in the second half of the year.
European equity markets started the day with a weak tone, although they remain close to their recent highs. The Spanish index traded close to 8,930, the German index is just above 15,580, while the US futures point to a flat opening.
Gold regained the 1,800 level on the back of a weak US dollar seen at the start of the trading week. Silver is up as well, higher by 0.67% on the day at the time this article was written.
The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its monetary policy report earlier today in the Asian session. The Aussie dollar liked the outcome, as it rose across the board, gaining against the US dollar and the euro.
Later today, the ISM Services PMI is expected at 63.4, after 64 in the previous month. Any positive surprise there is enough to send the US indices higher yet again.
Markets to Watch
WTI Crude Oil, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY– markets in focus today.
WTI Crude Oil
The market focused these past days on the OPEC+ meeting outcome. While the members discussed new possible supply and what the next strategy is, the price of oil traded with a bid tone. From a technical perspective, the market formed a bullish continuation pattern – a pennant. Its measured move points to levels close to $80, and the price action remains bullish while above the rising blue trendline.
The AUD/USD moved today on the back of the RBA statement. However, the price action was bullish even before the central bank delivered its message. A pennant formation pointed to higher levels and now the focus is on the 0.76 threshold. A move above the level will confirm the bullish reversal as the previous lower high is broken.
The EUR/JPY cross is bearish while below 132.50. The market may have formed a triangle as a reversal pattern, but the bearish scenario would be invalidated on strength above 132.50.
Winners and Losers
WTI crude oil is the winner of the day and week so far, while the US dollar is losing ground against its rivals.