Today marks the start of the EU Summit, and the common currency is under pressure, especially against the dollar. The stronger dollar theme dominated the trading week so far, as it appears to spoil the reflation trade seen as dominant in the last days of last year.
The stock market indices in the advanced economies remain close to their highs, although some signs of weakness appear on the horizon. That is especially true for the tech sector, where Tesla and ARKK, an ETF designed to track the tech sector, have a hard time in the market. In the case of ARKK, redemptions appear to be high enough to cause some impressive selling in the holdings.
In the United Kingdom, the FTSE100 index holds above 6,700, unfazed by the somehow weaker jobs data released earlier this week. The same we may say about all other major indices, from the U.S. to the old continent.
On the commodities front, the oil market suffered a shock yesterday as the Suez canal was blocked by a ship. The move sent the crude oil price higher, but not enough to recover the $60 level. Copper dropped below $4,000 while gold holds the $1,730 area.
Today’s economic calendar is full of important events. As mentioned earlier, the EU Summit begins, and the vaccination campaign is on the top of the agenda.
Yesterday, Italy announced that it discovered close to thirty million AstraZeneca vaccines in a deposit in the country and quickly blocked the export. Europe struggles with the third wave of the pandemic, with most of its older population unprotected.
To exemplify, think of Spain, which managed to inoculate the jab only to half of its adults aged over eighty, and not because of lack of infrastructure, but because of lack of vaccines. Therefore, the outcome of this end of the week’s EU Summit may bring some interesting news for financial markets to digest early next week.
The Swiss National Bank just announced its monetary policy, the Canadian and British Governors hold speeches today, and one Fed member is also scheduled to provide some more forward guidance to markets. All in all, an important day ahead, with the dollar stronger across the board.
Markets to Watch
Crude oil, AUDUSD, EURJPY – markets in focus today.
Crude oil’s struggle with the $60 level is, by far, the most interesting one this week. This is a level that offered major resistance before the pandemic, and the comeback looks like the head of a head and shoulders pattern. Therefore, more consolidation should be expected, with a move back to $52 or $50 possible, as suggested by the price action on the left side of the chart.
The Aussie pair got rejected twice from the lower edge of the reversal pattern and has finally reached the 38.2% retracement levels. Bears may want to book partial profits on a move to 50% retracement of the entire rising wedge pattern.
In a similar way, the EURJPY broker the wedge, and now it is retesting it. Providing the high hold, the pair should correct to 38.2% and more, as suggested by the bearish divergence with the RSI.
Winners and Losers
The U.S. dollar is the absolute winner, while the JPY remains offered.