Financial markets started the trading week with renewed pressure on the U.S. dollar. The EURUSD pair climbed to 1.2180 at the start of today’s session, while the AUDUSD and GBPUSD trade at their highs of the year, above 0.79, respectively 1.4050.
The U.S. stock market rallied yesterday, but the rally was not seen on all indices. The Dow Jones, for instance, managed to reach above 31,600 points again before correcting. However, the Nasdaq, the tech index, suffered. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, slammed Bitcoin yesterday as her remarks claimed that Bitcoin is a bubble. As such, the cryptocurrency lost almost 20% from the highs, triggering a selloff on the public companies that invested in Bitcoin recently – Tesla, MicroStrategy, etc.
In Europe, the Dax index did not manage to recover the 14,000 level. It tried for the entire session yesterday but failed. The weakness was seen on the FTSE 100 as well, as it now threatens to break below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern.
Crude oil is back at the highs, and it trades above $62. A remarkable comeback, the higher oil price will have important repercussions for the monetary policy worldwide as it triggers higher inflation.
We may say that the trading week starts today. As the image below shows, the Claimant Count Change in the United Kingdom blew off the expectations, once again confirming the strong GBP performance this year.
The focus today will be on the first of the two testimonies that the Fed Chair Powell will hold this week. The one from today is the most important one because tomorrow, the Fed Chair only repeats the main things from today. As such, if there is a chance that the markets will be surprised by something, today is the day to watch.
Moving into the upcoming Asian session, the RBNZ decision will have a strong impact on the Kiwi pairs. The Kiwi also outperformed, especially against the American dollar, mostly due to the effectiveness of the country containing the pandemic.
Markets to Watch
FTSE 100, USDCAD, USDCHF – the markets to watch today.
We’ve already mentioned the better than expected jobs data in the United Kingdom. If the FTSE 100 cannot rally after the positive data, the pressure mounts for the market to break below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. A break and close below should trigger renewed interest for the measured move of the pattern.
The USDCAD pair has corrected all of its recent bounce, mostly due to the crude oil price’s strength. However, it has now met a confluence area given by dynamic and horizontal support. Bulls, therefore, may step in to make the most of the falling wedge seen above.
The inverted head and shoulders seen on the USDCHF pair is so obvious that it represents a danger to bulls. When a pattern is so visible as this one is, the market typically tries to invalidate it. However, as long as the price remains above the neckline, the bias remains bullish, and the pressure mounts for another attempt at the measured move.
Winners and Losers
Crude oil remains the net winner so far in the trading week, as well as the GBP. On the flip side, the EURGBP cross remains one of the weakest pairs on the FX dashboard.