The trading week ahead starts on a positive note in the sense that the frenzy in the U.S. stock market transmitted to European ones too. Last Friday the Dow Jones closed near 33,000 points, marking an incredible run higher after the new fiscal stimulus was approved. According to estimates, the stimulus will reach the American people as soon as this month, so the impact on the economy and the stock market is expected to be seen in the second quarter.
The European exchanges opened higher today. The Spanish index, Ibex, trades above 8,700, the Dax in Germany is up 0.30%, and the U.K.’s FTSE100 is up 0.46%.
Gold recovered some of the lost ground but is still unable to rally. It trades above $1,720 but without much of a conviction. As long as it remains close to $1,700, the bearish pressure persists. On the other hand, oil continues its rally. It opened the week above $66 and fuels fears of inflation.
The economic calendar is light today and tomorrow, with no important data scheduled. However, traders have time to prepare for the main event of the week – the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday.
Markets to Watch
Oil, Dax, EURGBP – markets in focus today.
The price of oil remains in a bullish channel and broke major resistance at $60 some while ago. It remains bullish while inside of the rising channel, and shorting it makes no sense as long as it keeps making higher highs.
One of the most interesting charts lately shows an ascending triangle on the Dax index. The German index broke higher on the new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States and still has room to go to reach the measured move.
Besides the Federal Reserve of the United States meeting on Wednesday, the Bank of England is scheduled to deliver its monetary policy statement too. The EURGBP is at critical support, and a break below might trigger an ample move lower all the way to 0.82.
Winners and Losers
The U.S. dollar remains offered, as well as the JPY – it may all change once the Fed delivers its statement and projections later in the trading week. Oil remains well bid, and the next significant level is seen at $70.