Here are the historical tendencies for forex pairs and commodities in the month of November. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. Tickers mentioned: NZDUSD, USDMXN, USDJPY, USDCAD, GBPUSD, CL (crude oil) and SB (sugar).
Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do no reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.
Statistics are run on USD Index, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDMXN, NZDUSD for currencies and on light crude, natural gas, corn, gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and wheat for commodities.
Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise/fall in October more than 65% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 65% threshold may also be discussed. Applicable ETFs are also mentioned.
Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders.
Forex Seasonality For November
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has fallen in 13 out of the last 20 years (65%). The average loss is -0.7%.
The British Pound ETF (FXB) has fallen in 7 of the last 11 years (64%), moving lower by an average of -0.8%
USDCAD: The USDCAD has risen in 13 out of the last 20 years (65%). The average gain is 0.5%. More impressively, the USDCAD has risen in 8 of the last 10 years (80%), with an average gain of 1.3%
The Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC) has fallen 9 of the last 11 years (82%), dropping on average by -1.5%.
USDJPY: The USDJPY has risen in 12 out of the last 20 years (60%). The average gain is 1.4%, making it one of the strongest months of the year for the USDJPY.
The Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) has fallen 6 of the last 10 years (60%), dropping on average by -1.5%.
NZDUSD: Over the last 20 years, there isn’t much noteworthy. Over the last decade, the price has dropped in 9 of the last 10 years (90%). The average loss is -1.8% over that time frame.
USDMXN: Over last 20 years the USDMXN has risen 11 out of last 20 years (55%), and moved up 0.9% on average. Over the last 10 years the price has rallied 80% of the time, and moved up 2.2% on average.
Commodity Futures Seasonality For November
Sugar (SB) tends to be weak in November. Over the last 10 years is has fallen 90% of the time, and lost -3.2% on average. Over the last 20 years, it has fallen 65% of the time and lost -0.2%.
The Bloomberg Sugar ETN (SGG) has fallen in 8 out of the last 9 years (89%), losing -3.7% on average.
Crude Oil (CL) is right around 50% over the last 10 and 20 years, meaning it is a coin flip whether it will go up or down in November. What is noteworthy is that over the last 10 years crude has declined -3.7% in November on average, and -2.9% over the last 20 years.
The United States Oil Fund (USO) has dropped 55% of the time over the last 11 years, losing -3.6% on average.
Final Word on Forex and Commodity Seasonality
Apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock or forex trading course because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you may use.
Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% (or 2%) of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).
By Cory Mitchell, CMT
Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.