Here are the historical tendencies for forex pairs and commodities in the month of June. Watch sugar! Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. $AUDUSD $USDCHF $SB_F $CL_F
Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do no reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.
Statistics are run on USD Index, USDAUD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDEUR, USDGBP, USDJPY, USDMXN, USDNZD (some of these pairs are flipped relative to how they are typically quoted, be aware of that) for currencies and on light crude, natural gas, corn, gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and wheat for commodities. Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise in June more than 68% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 68% threshold may also be discussed. Applicable ETFs are also mentioned.
Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders.
Forex Seasonality For June
USDAUD: The AUD has risen against the USD in 13 out of the last 19 years (68%). The average gain for the AUD (or loss for the USD) is 0.7%. This would indicate the AUDUSD forex pair could be under upward pressure in June.
The Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) has finished higher in 9 of the last 11 years (rising 82% of the time), gaining 1.1% on average.
USDCHF: The CHF has risen against the USD in 13 out of the last 19 years (68%). The average gain for the CHF (or loss for the USD) is 0.7%. This would indicate the USDCHF forex pair could be under downward pressure in June.
The Swiss Franc ETF (FXF) has finished higher in 10 of the last 11 years (rising 91% of the time), gaining 1.6% on average.
Commodity Futures Seasonality For May
Sugar (SB) tends to be very strong in June. It has risen in June 16 out of the last 19 years (84%). The average gain for sugar during the month is 7.7%.
The Sugar Subindex ETN (SGG) has finished higher in 7 of the last 9 years (78%), gaining 7.3% on average.
Light Crude (CL) is worth noting, as June is historically a decent month for oil. It has risen in June 12 out of the last 19 years (63%). The average gain for oil during the month is 2.6%.
The US Oil ETF (USO) has finished higher in 6 of the last 11 years, gaining 1.7% on average.
Final Word on Forex and Commodity Seasonality
This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these statistics.
Apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock or forex trading course because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you can use.
Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% (or 2%) of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).
By Cory Mitchell, CMT
Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.