Here are the currencies and commodities that do well or poorly in March, historically. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. Tickers mentioned: USDMXN, USDCAD, Oil (CL, USO), Natural Gas (NG, UNG), Corn (ZC, CORN), Gold (GC, GLD), Coffee (KC, JO), and Sugar (SB, SGG).
Also, check out the Best-Performing Stocks in March.
Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do not reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.
Statistics are run on USD Index, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDMXN, NZDUSD for currencies and on Light Crude, Natural Gas, Corn, Gold, Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar, and Wheat for commodities. Applicable ETFs are also discussed.
Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise/fall in October more than 65% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 65% threshold may also be discussed.
Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders.
Forex Seasonality For March
The USDMXN has fallen in 16 of the last 20 years (80%), dropping by an average of -1.7% in March.
The USDCAD has fallen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), dropping an average of 0.3% in March.
The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) has rallied in February in 7 of the last 11 years (64%), with an average gain of 0.5%.
Commodity Seasonality For March
Light Crude (CL) only rallied in March 55% of the time over the last 20 years, which isn’t significant. But when it does move higher in March, it has produced some big gains. The average gain in March over the last 20 years is 3.9%.
United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved up in 7 of the last 11 years (64%), averaging 1.8%.
Natural Gas (NG) futures have rallied in 13 of the last 20 years (65%), moving up an average of 4% in March.
The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) has moved up only 50% of the time over the last 10 years, and lost on average -1.2% in March.
Corn (ZC) futures have fallen in 13 of the last 20 years (65%), dropping by an average of -1% in March.
Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) has fallen in 5 of the last years (71%), losing -1.3% on average.
Gold (GC) futures have fallen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), dropping by -0.7% in March on average.
The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has dropped in 10 of the last 13 years (77%), declining -1% on average.
Coffee (KC) futures have fallen 13 of the last 20 years (65%). The average decline is -1.6 in March%.
The Bloomberg Coffee SubIndex Total Return ETN (JO) has dropped in 6 of the last 9 years (67%), with an average decline of -1.1 in March%.
Sugar (SB) futures have fallen 13 of the last 20 years (65%). The average loss is -4.9%, making it the worst performing months of the year.
Bloomberg Sugar Subindex Total Return ETN (SGG) has fallen in 7 of the last 9 years (78%), declining -7.9% on average in March.
Final Word on Forex and Commodity Seasonality
Apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock or forex trading course because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you may use.
Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% (or 2%) of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).
By Cory Mitchell, CMT
Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.