Best and Worst Forex and Commodity Performers In April (Seasonality)
Here are the currencies and commodities that do well or poorly in April, historically. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. Tickers mentioned: Dollar Index (DX, UDN), GBPUSD and FXB, AUDUSD and FXA, USDCAD and FXC, NZDUSD, Oil (CL, USO), Natural Gas (NG, UNG) and Gold (GC, GLD).
Also, check out the Best-Performing Stocks in April.
Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do not reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.
Statistics are run on USD Index, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDMXN, NZDUSD for currencies and on Light Crude, Natural Gas, Corn, Gold, Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar, and Wheat for commodities. Applicable ETFs are also discussed.
Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise/fall in April more than 65% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 65% threshold may also be discussed.
Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols. For examples of such strategies, see the Forex Strategies Guide For Day and Swing Traders.
Forex Seasonality For April
The US Dollar Index (DX) has fallen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), dropping an average of 0.8% in April.
The PowerShares US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) has rallied in April 9 of the last 11 years (82%), with an average gain of 1.3%.
The GBPUSD has risen in 16 of the last 20 years (80%), rising on average 1.4% in April.
The CurrencyShares British Pound Trust (FXB) has rallied in April 11 of the last 11 years (100%), with an average gain of 2.1%.
The AUDUSD has risen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), rising on average 1.5% in April.
The CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) has rallied in April 8 of the last 11 years (73%), with an average gain of 1.9%.
The USDCAD has fallen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), dropping on average -1.2% in April.
The CurrencyShares Canadain Dollar Trust (FXC) has rallied in April 9 of the last 11 years (82%), with an average gain of 2%.
The NZDUSD has risen in 15 of the last 20 years (75%), rising on average 1.1% in April.
Commodity Seasonality For April
Light Crude (CL) only rallied in April 60% of the time over the last 20 years, which isn’t all that significant. But when it does move higher in April, it has produced some big gains. The average gain in April over the last 20 years is 3.3%.
United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved up in 7 of the last 12 years (58%), averaging 4.1%.
Natural Gas (NG) rallied in April 70% of the time over the last 20 years. The average gain in April is 2.3%.
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) has moved up in 8 of the last 11 years (73%), averaging 2.4%.
Gold (GC) rallied in April 70% of the time over the last 20 years. The average gain in April is 0.7%.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has moved up in 8 of the last 13 years (62%), averaging 1.7%.
Final Word on Forex and Commodity Seasonality
This is the raw data. What you do with it is up to you. All traders are encouraged to do their own research and apply their own strategies if utilizing these statistics.
Apply other technical and fundamental metrics to help zero-in on exact entry and exit points. Seasonality is not covered in my stock or forex trading course because it is a not a requirement for successful trading. That said, it is an additional tool you may use.
Losing trades WILL happen. Don’t risk more than 1% (or 2%) of your trading account on a trade (risk = difference between entry price and stop loss price, multiplied by the number of shares). There is always a risk in trading, and you can lose much more than you expect (even when you think you are only risking 1%).
By Cory Mitchell, CMT
Disclaimer: This article should not be viewed as investment advice, and is not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.