Raising The BAR: Bar Patterns & Trading Opportunities
How a 3-in-1 formation in cotton “triggered” the January sell-off
For Elliott Wave International’s chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy, the single most important thing for a trader to have is STYLE— and no, we’re not talking business casual versus sporty chic. Trading “style,” as in any of the following: top/bottom picker, strictly technical, cyclical, or pattern watcher.
Jeffrey himself is (and always has been) a “trend” trader, meaning: he uses the Wave Principle as his primary tool, with a few secondary means of select technical studies. Such as: Bar Patterns. And Jeffrey counts one bar pattern in particular as his favorite: the 3-in-1.
Here’s the gist: The 3-in-1 bar pattern occurs when the price range of the fourth bar (named, the “set-up” bar) engulfs the highs and lows of the last three bars. When prices penetrate above the high — or — below the low of the set-up bar, it often signals the resumption of the larger trend. Where this breach occurs is called the “trigger bar.” On this, the following diagram offers a clear illustration:
Now, how about a real world example of the 3-1 formation in the recent history of a major commodity market? Well, that’s where the picture below comes in. It’s a close-up of Cotton from the February 5, 2010 Daily Futures Junctures.
As you can see, a classic 3-in-1 bar pattern emerged in Cotton at the very start of the New Year. Within a few day the trigger bar closed below the low of the set-up bar, signaling the market’s return to the downside. Immediately after, cotton prices plunged in a powerful selloff to four-month lows.
February arrived, and with it the end of cotton’s decline. In the same chart you can see how Jeffrey used the Wave Principle to calculate a potential downside target for the market at 66.33. This area marked the point where Wave (5) equaled wave (1), a reliable for impulse patterns. Since then a winning streak in cotton has carried prices to new contract highs.
This example shows the power of a fully-equipped technical analysis “toolbox.” By using the Wave Principle with Bar Patterns, one has a solid, objective chance of anticipating the trend in volatile markets.
And in a 15-page report titled “How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Set-ups,” Jeffrey Kennedy identifies the top SIX Bar Patterns included in his personal repertoire. They are Double Inside Days, Arrows, Popguns, 3-in-1, Reverse 3-in-1, and Outside-Inside Reversal.
In this comprehensive collection, Jeffrey provides each pattern with a definition, illustrations of its form, lessons on its application and how to incorporate it into Elliott wave analysis, historical examples of its occurrence in major commodity markets, and ultimately — compelling proof of how it identified swift and sizable moves.
Best of all is, you can read the entire, 15-page report today at absolutely no cost. You read that right. The limited “How To Use Bar Patterns To Spot Trade Setups” is available with any free, Club EWI membership.