After strong movement on both sides of the market after the Employment Situation news out of the US on Friday the pair finished moderately higher, just edging out pre-news levels.

Currently the pair is in a downtrend , but a rise above 93.40 indicates a potential reversal.    Resistance beyond is at 94.00.

92.00 – 91.75  is major support on the downside and a break of that level indicates another swing lower.  Some support comes in at 91.30 and 91.00.

Over the last two days the pair has rallied, waiting to see how the pair reacts near the 93.40 will be beneficial, as the pair currently is in mid-swing and several short-term scenarios seem equally likely.

Short term traders can still take advantage of moves within the current swing in early trading this week.  A break above 93.10 will likely test highs (news related) at 93.20 and beyond 93.40.  A move below 92.85 indicates a test of 92.65, 92.50 and 92.25-92.20 if needed.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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The pair has converged into a triangle like pattern after  strong moves last Friday.  In the triangle I have not actually included the extremes of that day in the triangle, although they do actually connect quite nicely.  These extremes have been left out as they were due to a news event which will not repeat in the next couple days.  Therefore, we will use the swings after that to draw the triangle and extract a profit target.

A break through the bottom trend line (confirmed by a drop below horizontal line) will create a profit target at 1.4210.  This target will increase very slightly over time.

A push above the upper trend line gives early warning of a rise with a target of 1.4400 (currently).  This will decrease slightly over time.

Update: Mini Lesson – I just happened to look at my charts and notice the pair nudged below the trend line and then pulled back into it.  The most consistent signals will come from trading the pair while the European or US sessions are active.  Trades can be entered when Tokyo and Syndey are open as they do affect the market obviously, but I will often wait till the European sessions begin (for this pair).  A breakout means nothing if there is no volume behind it, so trade pairs when they have volume unless your strategy is specifically designed for trading at “thin” times.

Want to learn more about chart patterns?  Or find out more about what I spoke about above?  Check out my eBook available here: http://vantagepointtrading.com/trading-courses along with other trading courses.

Source: Forexyard, EUR/USD 30 Min Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

They also now offer Automated Trading!

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The EUR/USD pair has been in a tightening range after a very strong move a couple weeks ago.  This has formed a triangle formation and points to breakout either higher or lower of roughly 400 pips from the breakout point.  With the overall trend still up, the bias is for a break to the upside, yet the lower support line of the triangle will need to hold.  Otherwise a move down is expected.  On the downside (and upside) there are major support levels (resistance levels) which need to watched after the breakout occurs – these include recent swing low (and high) areas.

Source: Forexyard - EUR/USD - 4 Hour

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

Today I am going to briefly go over a few things to notice in the markets.  For those of you who actively trade you will have noticed certain pairs have died – meaning volatility and movement has decreased.  Other pairs have been extremely active and have developed strong trends.

Certain strategies work during certain types of market conditions and therefore it is important to know which environment we are trading in.  This seems obvious, but many traders fail to realize when conditions are not ripe for a certain strategy.

So let’s look at what some pairs are doing (or not doing) right now and then hopefully that will help pick better pairs to traded based on what strategies you use.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD are quite tightly wound at the moment.  Until a major breakout occurs on the daily chart these pairs should not be traded for large moves (relatively speaking).  Rather quick trades within the range (the ranges which started around mid-July) are the best bet.  Looking for reversals within the range using candle sticks is effective.

EUR/GBP and USD/CHF are also moving in a choppy fashion at the moment, although this is not too uncommon for these pairs.  Other than the major movements seen basically in all markets world-wide toward the end of last year, these pairs often move in what I would call a choppy fashion.  These pairs right now are good for similar trades as mentioned above.  Day charts will give many false signals, so use shorter time frames for entries and exits and trade within the ranges established on the daily charts.

USD/CAD and AUD/USD have been moving extremely well, both in strong trends as the dollar has experienced massive declines against these pairs.  Both these pairs are currently at levels which will help determine if the trend is likely to reverse or continue.  Both are approaching former swing lows and highs respectively which if punched through will mean a continuation of the trend.  Large moves still have the possibility of being captured as these pairs continue to trend – whether they continue to reverse (this is a topic for another post).

The examples given are used to show that while we may like to trade a certain pair and a certain strategy, it may not work all the time.  And what worked at one point may not work right now, but it may work again in the future.  We can minimize losses by not trading a certain pair when conditions are not right.  We can trade a pair that is more suited to our strategy, or we can do nothing.  Some of the greatest traders in history were the best not because they made the best trades, but because they knew when not trade and therefore not waste money.  That said there are plenty to opportunities if we match up the right strategies with the proper conditions (different pairs).

To Your Trading Success,

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

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The pair has seen a nice run up over the last 24 hours, but is now starting to consolidate.  This sets up a high reward to risk trade.

A break above 95.30 (+about 5 pips or so) will trigger a buy and an overall target of 160 pips, or 96.90.

A break below 94.70 (-5 about pips or so) will trigger a sell and an overall target of 100 pips or 93.70. 94.85 is an early trigger for the sell position, but is more prone to false breakouts.  If this entry is used, the target is still 93.70 but the profit is slightly larger due to the earlier entry.

Source: Forexyard, USD/JPY 1 Hour Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

———————

Here is a great video and analysis on the USD/JPY pair.  A couple things I will point out about this video as you watch it:

Markets very often break out out of a formation, and then move back to test the breakout point.  Many traders bail out of the trade here, taking a loss on a trade that was at one point very profitable, or they get out flat.  It is important to know that is a very common market reaction, and so traders either need to just trade the surge on the breakout, reaping a profit, or be willing to hold for the larger movement to unfold even if the market retraces back to towards their entry point.

The other thing worth noting is what he mentions in the video about reactions being similar within a trend.  When reaction magnitude starts to change it can give early signal of an alteration (slowing, accelerating, or potential reversal) of the trend.

Check out the video, is well worth watching.  If you wait right till the end of the video you will offered a free 30 day trial of all the great services and products offered at Market Club.  But the video is free and you are under no obligation to sign up for anything.

http://www.ino.com/info/411/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist

P.S.  Want more trading education?  Get 4 free trading seminars here:

http://www.ino.com/info/36/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=9

Be Sure to check that one out!

Here is a longer term view of the EUR and USD relationship.  Adam provides his analysis in this video of where the pair is likely to go.

What I like about this video is he demonstrates a simple way to calculate profit targets.  The method he describes I use myself in conjunction with other profit target establishment methods.  It is simple to use and can be very effective in “predicting” what kind of moves are probable in a forex currency pair.

Battle of the EUR vs USD…who’s the winner?

These guys provide a great service and if you stick around right till the end of the video you will be able to take a 30 day risk free trial.  BUT, as always these videos posted here are entirely free and you don’t even need to register unless you want to try to out many of the great products Ino has to offer.

Best wishes in your trading, and if you want to learn more about forex (as well as other markets) trading on your own, be sure to check out the Trading Courses page on this site for access to some great programs and trading strategies.

WANT MORE?  How about 4 free online seminars:   http://www.ino.com/info/36/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=9 Be Sure to check that one out!

Cheer,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

The GBP/USD currency pair has formed a downward sloping flag formation.  This sets up a potential trade, and due to the action leading into the current formation, we have multiple profit targets.

A break above the upper channel line (see chart) indicates a swing higher with a target of 1.6500.  A move aggressive target is 1.6550 which is just above a former swing high from early July.

A break lower is less likely, but could happen.  The target would be 50 pips below the breakout point  of the lower channel line (see chart).  A more aggressive target is 100 pips.

The channel lines change over time because they are sloping, so it is prudent to reconstruct these lines on your own chart.

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other forex and stock market trading methods?  Check out the Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, GBP/USD 1 Hour Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

If you are you interested in getting into forex trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

I will be posting a forex signal later today, so check back in several hours for that.  In the mean time, as you know I love Ino videos.  They put together quality videos which cover a longer time frame than I normally trade on, so I offer these videos for the traders who are looking to swing trade or invest.  That said, having an overall idea of where the market is going or what it is most likely to do can definitely benefit day traders as well.

In this video the Dollar Index is discussed.  The dollar is index is a gauge of how the USD is doing against a basket of other currencies.  By analyzing the DX (dollar index) we get a broad view of how the USD is doing.  Since most of the pairs with high liquidity and low spreads involve in the USD, the ones most commonly traded,  it can be a worth while index to keep on eye on.

http://www.ino.com/info/404/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Oh, and if you wait for the video to totally finish you will be redirected to a free 30 day trial!  Well worth at least taking a look at.  But the videos are totally free and you don’t need to sign up for anything.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

Here is a potential trade which is likely to materialize in the late London or early US session.  The AUD/USD has consolidated in a narrow band (happens often around this time of day), and is likely to have a breakout on the 30 or 15 minute chart.  The bias is upwards indicated by the pattern set up, but a break downwards can’t be ruled out.

A break above 0.7955 would indicate a move to 0.8110.  A break below would provide a conservative target of 0.7880-0.7885 and a more aggressive target of 0.7860 (but this is slightly less likely to develop).

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other forex and stock market trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, AUD/USD 30 Minute Chart

Please read the latest “How to Use the Trade Ideas” blog (you can find it using the Categories tool on the side) if you have questions. If you still have questions after, feel free to comment

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.