Courtesy of EverythingDayTrading.com here are some stocks to keep an eye on Monday:

After Friday’s action it is arguable that Monday could see a lot of action anyway…especially in the financial sector.  This has potential and can be watched.  Despite the markets being a bit roiled, stock selection will be based on the normal criteria and if the market is active again on Monday then that is just an added bonus.  Due to the news on GS (Goldman Sachs) and the resulting impact on the financial sector, financial stocks are on the watch list.

GS: Aggressive selling Friday. Watching 166, 159.50 and 155.50.

BAC: Aggressive selling Friday. Watching 18.90, 18.62, 18.30, 18.05

C: Aggressive selling Friday.  Watching: 4.66, 4.55, 4.43-4.40

BEE: Strong sell off Friday morning.  Watching 5.76, 5.43-5.46, 5.20, 5.10, 4.95

MCO: Aggressive selling Friday. Watching 28.36-28.40, 27.33, 27.18

SLM:  Aggressive selling Friday.  Watching 13.12, 12.64, 12.54, 12.40, 12.22

Cheers,

EverythingDayTrading

~Please note, these are not recommendations to buy or sell.  Know your risks in trading and please read our Legal Disclaimer page.

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The following was a post from Larry Levin of Trading Advantage and looks once again at the Greece issue….which we thought was taken care of….but apparently not.

Cheers (and enjoy)

Greece Again…Really?

Greece is in the news again…really? When will this story just go away? Apparently Greece was NOT bailed out a few days ago as reported in The Guardian from the UK and is still in need of funding its profligate spending habits & future promises. But what is even more amazing than that, the banksters on Fraud Street used this morning new “rumor” of a “new bailout” to pump the market higher again on even lower volume again. This is now beyond ridiculous.

According to ABC news:

Greece could seek IMF funding to help overcome its debt crisis if its EU partners do not provide “clear support” next week, a government spokesman said Wednesday.

George Petalotis said the March 25-26 European Union summit on how to deal with a potential bailout for Greece will be crucial, as the country struggles to reduce a bloated budget deficit and public debt.

“I believe the summit is when it will become evident whether the European partners want to support a country … or whether we have to resort to some other solution,” Petalotis said.

Nope, that does not sound like a “done deal” to me.

In a piece on Bloomberg today we read:

March 17 (Bloomberg) — Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who warned almost two decades ago that the euro would prove an “economic liability,” said Greece’s austerity plan will fail and the country may quit the single currency to fix its fiscal crisis.

“The idea that Greece can go from a 12 percent deficit now to a 3 percent deficit two years from now seems fantasy,” Feldstein, an adviser to U.S. presidents since Ronald Reagan, said in a March 13 interview in Geneva. “The alternatives are to default in some way or to leave, or both.”

Bailout? Professor Feldstein says Greece’s only options are DEFAULT, leaving the EU, or BOTH.

But what would any of this matter to the pump-monkeys on Fraud Street? Today’s so-called Greek rescue package is the 6th? 7th? 17th or 27th? I have lost count. But no matter, another unfounded rumor is just fine with the computerized trading from Goldman Sachs and JPM. There are no shorts left to stop it but there are no buyers other than the computers either: each day is governed by ridiculously low volume and no volatility whatever, which is a sign of no/few new buyers.

The trend is up so you do not want to short this market; however, it is so abnormal that I believe it could (not will) suffer a radical drop if the tensions with China increase over currency manipulation, a-la the 1987 market meltdown and the German Mark.

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The following is the outlook for the S&P 500 heading into next week, March 1-5.

The way the market is right now is what I talk about in this weeks newsletter (sign up along the right hand side…it’s free).  Movements have been somewhat erratic, unless a trader is very skilled they can easily get whipsawed in this market.  We had the decline in late January and early February, now we have rallied back and sit basically in the center of that former decline.  What is interesting and what makes the short-term outlook uncertain is that we have exceed the 1104 – 1105 brief rally high on February2 .  Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday last week we moved through that point everyday.  Thursday had its own interesting action needless to say.

So we sit at a  point where short-term probabilities are about equal for moving up or down.  Luckily there is no need to predict anything to make money.  Rather we let the market lead by only stepping in in force when the market has given us reason to believe there is a higher probability it will move a certain direction.

1115 is resistance on the upside.  A break above indicates strength and with little resistance until 1130-1132 our target is 1130.  A drop back below 1115 before a target is hit shows some indecision and that the choppy trading is likely to continue.  Beyond 1132 resistance is at 1150.

The weekly average range for the S&P stands at about 31 points.  The range that is covered this week will fall short or be greater than this average number, but it does give us an indication of what kind of levels are likely to be within (or outside) target range in the upcoming week.

Thursday’s low at 1086 is a level to watch, a drop below that bearish and will likely reach support at 1080.  Below 1080 we have a collection of days which ranged between 1080-1060 so this is another areas which could get choppy unless we have a swift move through it. Further support comes in at 1056 and 1045.

Since Feb. 5 we have a short-term uptrend.

S&P 500 Daily, FreeStockCharts

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Strong shortened trading week we saw, as the S&P 500 managed to break above the 1104 level and closed out the week above it at  about 1109.   1104 was the price point I mentioned in previous posts as being a pivotal point for the market.  Exceeding that point puts the market in a “no man’s land” there there is a conflict between short and longer term signals.

The market has pulled back to near the middle of a recent high and a recent low, both which sit at the opposite ends of what has been a period of expanded volatility.   Which path the market will take from here becomes somewhat unclear when looking at multiple time frames.

Short-term there is a strong trend higher starting from early February, but if we go back to early January it appears we are in correction.  Day traders are likely to like this area as the intra-day volatility has been quite tradeable.

For the week of Feb 22-26 the outlook is neutral at this point.  Resistance and targets on the up side are 1115 and 1132.  Beyond this is the high at 1150.  The break above 1104 does indicate a move to 1120, and a move through 1120 indicates a move to 1132.  Failure to reach the levels is bearish.

A close below 1104 is the first indication of trouble once again, but is not a clear sign.  1080 should now act as strong support, and if it does not provide support and prices fall through support comes in at 1060, 1055 and 1044.  1080 is also where our short-term trendline will approximately be broken if prices retreat this week.

Weekly average range is just over 31 points, so some of these levels mentioned are out of reach for the market this week, but are important for the larger picture.

For some fundamental concerns with this market, view Euro Banks; Domino Effect?

S&P 500, Daily. FreeStockCharts.com

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The following is a look at what can be expected in the stock market in the upcoming week, Nov 23-27.  We are looking at the S&P 500 .  Keep in mind the market is closed on Nov 26 and it closes early on Nov 27.  So we are looking at an abbreviated trading week.  Volume has already been light and has been declining since the march lows, but more recently has been declining since the end of October.  Expect volume to be quite light this week, especially Friday.

Monday set a false tone for last week.  We broke above the 1107 level mentioned in last weeks post.  The ride to 1118 should have been smooth sailing, but there was really no buying above in this region.  Selling was not that strong either, until Thursday.

On Tuesday when we couldn’t make new highs, but made new lows we had an indication that the market was likely to head lower.  Volume is also a factor in this.

This past week gave us very clear support and resistance levels. Here is what to look for:

A rise above 1098 is likely to cause a pop back to 1102-1104.  This is where former support, now resistance, comes into play.  That range that held most of the price action through early last week is now going to act as a ceiling.  If it climbs higher than that, expect more range bound trading between 1104-1113.  With the light volume we may see the market pushed around and may see a spike above the high, but unless it is accompanied by large volume the break is very highly likely to fail.  The market getting above the highs this week is not probabilistically high though.

The upside target is still 1118, but I am very leary of trading long up in that area unless it is for quick scalps.  UNLESS, once again volume makes a come back….from my keyboard to God’s ears.

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On the downside we have support at 1086-1084.  A break below indicates a move to 1076.  Below that watch how it reacts around the gap of 1072-1070.  A closing of that gap is bearish and indicates further selling.  A gap below that along with a close would be even more bearish.  Further support is at 1065 and 1060.

I will trade what the market gives.  But personally I do not believe this market is a buying opportunity.  In fact I think the wool has been pulled over the publics eyes and that this market and the economy are in serious trouble unless serious changes are made…and those changes cannot include more spending, incentives or pushing the consumer into more debt.

Trade in the direction of the trend but do not become attached to it.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

On the hourly chart the trendline is still rising.  We managed to reach former highs last week, but could not sustain the momentum to stay above that level.  We do have some solid levels in the upcoming week which will give good indication of where this market is going if those levels are moved through.

On the upside we have resistance from 1100-1105.  We have seen multiple failures in this region.  Obviously we need to get through this area if the market is going to head higher.  A break above 1107 would indicate strength and that we are heading for another swing higher.   The target for the move is 1118 followed by 1130 if the former level is exceeded.

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We have support at 1085.  A sustained break below that indicates a move to test 1072.  This is the profit target based off the last swing high-swing low, substracted from the low. This is also where the gap up on Monday occured.  If that level holds expect a move back higher, but if that gap is filled and we hit 1070 it is a bearish sign and prices overall are likely to head south.  Support is likely at 1065 and then 1060.  Breaks of those indicates a further move to 1052.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

While the market did try to push lower, it did not get below the 1029 level (which as mentioned in last weeks post) would have indicated a strong bearish bias if the level was broken.  That level was brushed by the market but quickly retraced higher.  We have moved up and closed right at the resistance level of 1070-1073.  This is a pivotal level.  If we can move above and hold above it for a day, this would indicate another swing higher.

On a move higher, resistance/targets are 1077 and 1085.  Moves beyond that will challenge former swing highs at 1091, 1095, and ultimately 1098-1100.

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The average range for a week on the S&P right now is about 40 points.  This means if the market does collect steam as it moves above 1073 it is well within the grasp of the market to reach the 1100 mark once again.  Targets/resistance beyond is 1105 then 1111-1113.

There are still warning signs this market is going to correct, thus we need to be aware that a move below 1065 indicates the possibility of a pullback.  A pull below 1065 indicates a move to 1062, with a further move down testing 1060-1058. The bias shifts downward if 1058 is penetrated.  This would signal a move to 1047-1045.  Further target/support would be at 1036 and then once again 1029.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
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The sham of a GDP number (see: http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/2055 ) gave false optimism on Thursday ; the reality of the situation is more congruent with Friday’s action.  But let’s look at the technicals:

Rallies on the S&P 500 in the upcoming week can be expected to experience resistance at 1042 and if that fails to hold then 1061.  A rise beyond that in the current climate is unlikely, but is (small percentage) possible.  A rise above 1070 would signal this market has plenty of buyers (or short coverings) and is good for another move higher.

Even Chuck Norris is short....but I am not gonna tell him.

If Monday trades through 1032 it is likely the market will continue lower, although this is not really an important technical level.  A continued move below 1029 points to a test of former swing lows at 1020 and then beyond that 1005-1000.

Based on a daily chart trendline the uptrend was still intact until Friday.  A down day on Monday indicates the trend has in fact been broken and we are due for a larger correction.

Happy Trading,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

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