May 07 6:05 AM GMT

The following is a forex market commentary based on technical analysis for the USD/JPY currency pair. It is based off of a 15 minute chart. Trading ideas or trading signals can be generated based on your own risk tolerance and time frame. Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions.  If you still have questions after, feel free to comment.

The USD/JPY has formed a triangle chart pattern offering a trading opportunity.  While reaching the apex of the triangle is rare from my experience, the closer it gets the more the risk (stop level) can generally be reduced.

Currently the pair is trading at 98.59.  An upside breakout would currently take place at 98.70, or a downside break at 98.35.  The profit target is 80 pips (rounded down) from the breakout point (which changes over time as the trend lines are sloping).  A second profit target is 105 pips from the breakout price.

Source: Forexyard

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist

Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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“Bird Watching in Lion Country – Retail Forex Trading Explained” is a great book on the Forex market. It clears away some of the myths about forex trading, exposes some of the hype, and leads you down a path where you are better able to understand and succeed in the market.

It is worth taking a look at: http://www.forex-trading-explained.com

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May 07 2:14 AM GMT

The following is a forex market commentary based on technical analysis for the EUR/USD currency pair. It is based off of a 15 minute chart. Trading ideas or trading signals can be generated based on your own risk tolerance and time frame. Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions.  If you still have questions after, feel free to comment.

From looking at longer time frame charts we can see the EUR/USD is consolidating and has continually narrowed its range over the last 24 hours.  This has created a triangle formation, providing an excellent trading opportunity.  A break outside of the chart formation would offer a profit target of 120 pips from the breakout price.  A second profit target would be 180 pips from the breakout price.

Currently the upside breakout price is 1.3340 and the downside breakout price is 1.3285.  These will gradually change over time as the upper trend line is downward sloping and lower trend line upward sloping.

Currently the pair trades as 1.3315.

Source: Forexyard

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist

Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!
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April 27 8:00 GMT

Since gold is at an interesting spot I have decided to post a trade idea for it, as even traders only with forex accounts can access gold trading through a CFD.

The following is a commodity market commentary based on technical analysis for the Gold.  It is based off of a daily chart. Trading ideas or trading signals can be generated based on your own risk tolerance and time frame. Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions.  If you still have questions after, feel free to comment.  This is trade is likely to be a week or longer in duration.

Gold is currently hitting resistance on a downward sloping trend line.  A break above this line (currently $920, remember this line is downward sloping over time) would indicate a profit target of $980 and if that is exceeded, $1020.

If the resistance level holds, look for a retreat to the downward sloping support line in the $840-$850 range.

Gold is currently trading at $914.18

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist

Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!
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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

April 24 7:35 GMT

The following is a forex market commentary based on technical analysis for the AUD/USD currency pair. It is based off of a 15 minute chart. Trading ideas or trading signals can be generated based on your own risk tolerance and time frame. Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions.  If you still have questions after, feel free to comment.

In the AUD/USD currency pair we can see a ascending triangle has formed.  The resistance line is at 0.7160, which is an old support level on the longer term charts.

A break above this range would offer us a target price of 0.7230.

A break of the rising support line, which currently would occur at 0.7120 (remember this line is upward sloping so the break price out will rise over time), would provide a  profit target of 0.7050

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist

Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!
—————————
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

From this point forward, this site will provide market analysis for different currency pairs which will provide trade ideas that traders on all time frames can use.  The trade ideas and analysis will be provided for a range of currency pairs and time frames.  Day trading signals will still be offered, but longer term signals can also be used to generate trade ideas on shorter term trades.

Currency pairs which may be covered (some more than others) are GBP/USD,  USD/JPY,  EUR/USD,  USD/CAD,  USD/CHF,  AUD/USD,  GBP/JPY,  EUR/GBP

Time frames analyzed will be the 15 minute, 30 minute, 1 hour, 4 hour or daily charts.

For instance, we may have the USD/JPY approaching a major level on a 4 hour chart, and the USD/CHF on a 15 minute chart.

If you trade a certain time frame, you can pull up the time “category” which is right for you trading style.  For instance to see trade analysis for the 15 minute time frame, select the “15 Min Chart Analysis” category from along the right hand side of the page.

These will no longer be trading signals with exact entry, stops and profit targets.  But since one of the main problems for many traders is trading a set currency even when the likelihood of profits is low, these trade ideas will allow them to focus on markets which have greater potential to move.  We must realize that there are times when given currency pair is not worth trading, and we should seek opportunities elsewhere.  Knowing when to trade, and in what, is at least half the battle.  The analysis will point traders toward pairs to watch and trade.

Here are some general guidelines though, which should be followed when using these trade ideas.

-There are many opportunities across different currency pairs each day.  These ideas are simply a few, and are not to be considered all inclusive

-If you have a small account is recommended that you do not risk more than 3% on single trade.  This risk level is calculated by taking:  the number of lots X risk in pips for the trade.  If this number works out to be greater than 3% of the entire trading account, then the number of lots should be reduced, or the time frame manipulated so as the stop can be reduced (carefully with this, make sure the stop is still placed at a logical level).

-If you have a large account, use a stop based on percentage of account or a set dollar amount to risk on the trade.  Many traders also opt for a daily maximum loss stop.  For instance, if on average a trader makes $1000/day, then they may set a daily maximum loss for trading at $1000.  This means if they have a losing day, they will not lose more than they make on average in a day.

-Remember that a “failed” move is just as potentially profitable to as an actual breakout.  Therefore, if a currency pair is testing a breakout zone, we are not only watching for a breakout, but also a failure.  Pullbacks off major levels can be significant, as can breakouts.

-Trades are based on technical analysis, including standard and proprietary methods.  Fundamentals and news events will continue to be discussed from time to time.

-Avoid making trades during, or right, before market moving news events.  It is up to each trader to view an economic calender before placing a trade.  Only trade during these times if a method is employed to capture these volatile movements and control risk. The broker, Forexyard, provides this calendar right in the trading platform for easy reference.

-Trading with logical profit targets allows a risk and reward to be established before the trade is even placed.  Only take trades if the potential and logical rewards outweigh the risks.  This will be based on a the stop level you choose, and whether you decide to use the profit targets provided or your own.

-Ideas and analysis will be posted at random times throughout the day.  Check back often or subscribe to the feed to be aware of the recent ideas which have been posted.

-Be sure to read the Legal Disclaimer before trading.  Remember, forex trading involves a serious risk of loss.  Stop levels may not always be honor if there is no market at that price, meaning you will get filled at the next best price beyond your stop.  Only trading, or risk capital, you can afford to lose shoud be used.

Cory MItchell, CMT

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

Please read the latest How to Use the Day Trading Blog before using these signals. The signals are for the start of the European session. If market does not move to the trigger price by about 9:30 AM GMT, then do not take trades.

Read the comments to this post as they are posted. The comments provide updates to the trades and will provide final results of the trade based on those updates.

Take multiple lots so you can exit at different prices. These should be “separate positions” with the same entry and stop, but with different profit targets. The amount of the stop in pips multiplied by the amount you take should not be more than 3% (less is even better) of your total trading account. If it is more, take less lots. For the summary pip profit calculation (in the comments after the trade completes, each position will be assumed to be 1 lot. If you take more than 1 lot, you pip profit/loss will be multiplied by how many lots you take for each position (likely you will have 2 or 3 positions depending on the number of profit targets given).

SELL at 1.4847. Stop=1.4865. Profit target=1.4825, 1.4780, 1.4740 . If not stop out on final position exit trade at 10:00 AM GMT. Bring stop to breakeven once 25+ pips onside.

~Cory Mitchell
Market Strategist
—————————

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

———————–

Have you ever wondered why the forex market acts the way it does? At times there are seemingly large “random” movements, and technical analysis methods can seem very hard to “fit” to the data (especially on the short term). Well, a very interesting book on the subject is “Bird Watching in Lion Country – Retail Forex Trading Explained”. It clears away some of the myths about forex trading, exposes some of the hype, and leads you down a path where you are better able to understand and succeed in the market.

It is worth taking a look at: http://www.forex-trading-explained.com

The USD/JPY pair broke above the 99.50 resistance level a few days ago, and has since retreated. The retreat took the pair back to a low 99.30 – right near the top of the old resistance area. The fact the market held this level, combined with a strong day today which is pushing the price back above 100.00, provides a potential swing trade to the upside.

If the old resistance level continues to hold we have a potential trade.  Currently the pair is trading at 100.47.

We have two potential entries. The first entry is a daily close above 100.42. This is a more aggressive entry in that the market will have not yet proven it is going to resume the uptrend, but has simply given us strong indications that it will. That said, the risk in pips for this trade will be lower.

The other possible entry is a daily close above the recent swing high at 101.42. The higher entry price shows the market is continuing the uptrend (higher highs, higher lows), yet, our stop in pips will be increased due to the higher price paid.

Here are the setups for both trades:

1.     BUY on a close above 100.42 (this could be soon)

Stop at 99.25.  This is a risk of 117 pips (assuming an entry around 100.42).

Profit Targets at 104.80 and 109.00.  This is a reward of 438 pips and 858 pips approximately.  It is approximate because we do not yet know our exact entry price which will be based on an upcoming daily closing price.

OR

2.     BUY on a close above 101.42

Stop at 99.25.  This is a risk of 217 pips.

Profit Targets at 104.80 and 109.00.  This is a reward of 338 pips and 758 pips approximately.  It is approximate because we do not yet know our exact entry price which will be based on an upcoming daily closing price.

Downsides of the trade:  The upside of the trade is that we have seen a pull back and thus far a successful hold above the old resistance level (now a support level).  The downside is that that this pullback was relatively small compared to other pullbacks we have seen in this pair.  With the pair still showing some signs of being overbought (this is not a bad thing in and of itself, it is actually a sign of recent/current strength) the danger is that we could still see a pullback possibly back into the 98 area.

-On the flip side, strong trends generally always show oscillator type indicators nearer to overbought levels.  Also a small pull back can be a sign of strength as the market was not able to push prices much lower before moving back higher.

These comments are made not to confuse, but rather to help you gain an understanding of the thought process you should go through before you a choose to incorporate a certain strategy into your trading plan.  For information on building a trading plan please see my article in the March issue of Technical Analysis of Stock and Commodities magazine, or you can find an abbreviated version here on the site: http://vantagepointtrading.com/tips-and-tricks/trading-plans

The amount of pips multiplied by the number of lots should not exceed 3% of your total account balance (less is even better).   For example if you have a mini account, each pip movement is approximately $1 US.   If you have $10,000 in your account you can risk 3% of $10,000 which is $300.  That means you can take 2 mini lots for the first trade and risk $234 (derived from 2 X 117).  If you take 3 lots your risk would be $351 which is more than 3% of your account balance.  If you take the second entry you can only take 1 lot.  Bottom line control risk on every trade if you want to stay in this game for the long term.

~Cory Mitchell
Market Strategist

PLEASE READ THE RISK DISCLAIMER BEFORE TRADING: http://vantagepointtrading.com/legal-disclaimer
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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

Please read the latest How to Use the Day Trading Blog before using these signals. The signals are for the start of the European session. If market does not move to the trigger price by about 9:30 AM GMT, then do not take trades.

Read the comments to this post as they are posted. The comments provide updates to the trades and will provide final results of the trade based on those updates.

Take multiple lots so you can exit at different prices. These should be “separate positions” with the same entry and stop, but with different profit targets. The amount of the stop in pips multiplied by the amount you take should not be more than 3% (less is even better) of your total trading account. If it is more, take less lots. For the summary pip profit calculation (in the comments after the trade completes, each position will be assumed to be 1 lot. If you take more than 1 lot, you pip profit/loss will be multiplied by how many lots you take for each position (likely you will 2 or 3 positions depending on the number of profit targets given).

SELL at 1.4711. Stop=1.4739. Profit target=1.4665, 1.4625. If not stop out on final position exit trade at 10:00 AM GMT. Bring stop to breakeven once 25+ pips onside.

~Cory Mitchell
Market Strategist
—————————

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

Please read the latest How to Use the Day Trading Blog before using these signals. The signals are for the start of the European session (roughly around 7 AM GMT). If market does not move to the trigger price by about 9:30 AM GMT, then do not take trades.

Read the comments to this post as they are posted. The comments provide updates to the trades and will provide final results of the trade based on those updates.

Take multiple lots so you can exit at different prices. These should be “separate positions” with the same entry and stop, but with different profit targets. The amount of the stop in pips multiplied by the amount you take should not be more than 3% (less is even better) of your total trading account. If it is more, take less lots. For the summary pip profit calculation (in the comments after the trade completes) each position will be assumed to be 1 lot. If you take more than 1 lot, you pip profit/loss will be multiplied by how many lots you take for each position (likely you will 2 or 3 positions depending on the number of profit targets given).

SELL at 1.4309. Stop=1.4330. Profit target=1.4277, 1.4246, 1.4212 If not stop out on final position exit trade at 10:00 AM GMT. Bring stop to break even once 25+ pips onside.

~Cory Mitchell
Market Strategist
—————————

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

These new day trading forex signals began on February 23, 2009. Thus it has been just over a month, and it is time to evaluate how these signals have done.

A couple of trades were canceled, and these will be left out of the evaluation.

The number we really care about is how many pips did these signals give you. If you followed the signals and the comments you would have made +488 pips in just over a month.  This is not multiplying anything by multiple lots.  Each signal has potentially 3 different profit/loss positions within it (a 1/3 portion for each profit target).  All of these positions were combined to provide us with the above figure.

If you only took 1 position and exited at the first target always, you would have made 108 pips.

If you opened 2 positions and exited at the first two profit targets, you would have made 292 pips.  This is much more than simply doubling the above number because we are taking  larger profits with that second position.

And with three separate positions we make 488 pips.  As you can see, it pays to play more positions but to exit at 3 different price levels.  You can trade as many lots as you want but good results from this strategy come from exiting 1/3 at each target.  This time frame does show that it would be more profitable not to exit at the first target, but instead exit 2/3 of the position at the second target and 1/3 is kept using the trailing stop.

Your risk must still most definitely be under 5% and preferably under 2% of account value.

We had 21 signals during this time frame. Here is the breakdown of those signals.

-8 signals resulted in a overall loss (38%)
-3 signals resulted in breaking even (14%)
-10 signals resulted in a overall profit (48%)

Since generally we trade in multiple positions, we need to look at the average profits and losses for each signal overall.  Assuming each position within a signal is 1 lot:

-Average loss: 23 pips/lot
-Average gain: 37.72pips/lot

These are some key statistics. There are more, but I won’t bore you with them. The bottom line, is that if you use the signals how they are posted and updated, you would have made money. These signals are valid and I use them myself. They are not simulated results, these trades have all been posted in real time as the market unfolds. You don’t need to be right every time to make money, and you don’t need to hit any “home runs” either.

The is one simple strategy and only provides a small glimpse into what is possible with the forex market.  This strategy does not look at trends or indicators, but simply looks for very short term trades based on opening volatility, and even being so simple it is still profitable.  Soon a new service is going to be launched which will provide you with many signals each day, based on a multitude of cutting edge trading techniques – on all time frames!  Keep checking back as that service will be arriving in the coming months.

~Cory Mitchell
Market Strategist
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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.
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NOTE: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading the forex market involves substantial risk. By using these signals you do so of your own accord and at your own risk. You waive Cory Mitchell and http://vantagepointtrading.com of any liability relating to any losses, including other missed opportunities.