If you have been following my analysis lately, you know there were some mixed signals in the market.  Adam lays out his thoughts in this new video, and poses a very credible case that maybe the Euro has gone to far.  Looking for some straight forward analysis?  It was recorded yesterday, but after today’s move is very relevant.

It’s only about 4 mins and is free to view.  Enjoy.

http://www.ino.com/info/531/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 4.

The EUR/USD broke above resistance at 1.3700.  That pushed the pair up to interim resistance at 1.3740 (to 1.3750) on the way to the 1.3800 target as mentioned yesterday.

The pullback to the breakout point has occurred, moving back to 1.3688  and currently trades as 1.3707.  A push back above 1.3750 would confirm the breakout.  Trendline resistance intersects at 1.3800 which is the current target if resistance can be penetrated.  Resistance beyond the target is 1.3835.  Penetration of that point would put the pair in at least a short-term correction higher, making a retest of recent lows very unlikely over the next couple weeks.

Support has developed between1.3690, and can extend down to 1.3670.  A drop below that level hints at a bull trap and a retest of support between 1.3610-1.3590.   Below this, again, support and resistance lose their importance.  That said, some support is likely at 1.3520, 1.3490 and key support at 1.3440-1.3430.

Markets have been very interesting lately, and sometimes traders need a little guidance….

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Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The move down on Thursday covered a significant portion of the price action over the last few days. The inability to climb above 1.3810 and ultimately 1.3840, still means this downtrend is very much intact.

Holding above recent lows, indicates a range is developing. That range is in play until significant support or resistance is broken, 1.3600-1.3580 and 1.3810-13840 respectively.

Right now the pair sits at 1.3679 with some resistance above at 1.3700 followed by resistance at 1.3720 and 1.3750 then 1.3800.

Support is likely at 1.3660 with a break below testing 1.3640 and 1.3600 if the decline continues. Support continues through to 1.3580. There is little support beyond and the overall target for a drop through support is 1.3400 over the coming week.

The trend remains down, but until a move is made on the support/resistance levels mentioned, the short-term overall direction is unclear.  Multiple news events on Friday as well.

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~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The NFP report is due out Friday, and it is likely to cause a lot of volatility.  Estimates of the number vary greatly, so almost any number is likely to cause a stir.

Currently the pair sits just above 1.4300.  Short-term support is there, as well as the short-term trend line has also worked its way up to this level.  If broken, further support is at 1.4280-1.4270 and 1.4255-1.4250.  1.4220 is the 3 month low and a drop below would indicate another wave lower.  Support through 1.4200-1.4175 will need to be broken as well for that to occur.

A push back above 1.4340 gives us indication that the pair may once again move higher; targets are 1.4360 and 1.4390.  Movement through 1.4390 is likely to test 1.4410, 1.4440.

Keep in mind the NPF report could easily(and will most likely) move the pair beyond its average daily range.

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-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Looking at the EUR/USD currency pair, resistance at 1.4900 was very much respected by the market on Monday.  Heading into the Tuesday around the world, 1.4900 again is an important level.  For forex traders a break above this level indicates a move towards 1.4920 initially.  Getting above 1.4930 indicates another upside target of 1.4950-1.4960.

Further selling is a definite possibility and a move back below 1.4800 will give us our first indication of that.  Support is at 1.4780 and 1.4760.  1.4750 is the next level to watch.  A fall through there indicates further selling with little support until 1.4700.

Average daily range has climbed slightly and now sits at 140 pips/day.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The pair slid faster than a ice cube in a KY jelly factor on Friday.  Moving nearly 300 pips, which is even a fairly substantial amount beyond double its daily average range, which is around 135 pip/day.  For those groping for a bottom it was hard to pick than a broken nose.

This aggressive move was imminent.  Further unfolding is plausible, but we will wait for price to confirm.  In Friday’s post I commented a move below 1.4980 indicated a move to the lower part of the range if the other levels where taken out.  They were…and well, granted I did not expect it to happen in ONE DAY(!), it happened and we should have been on the right side of that move.

Now we sit just above the low of the range.  As early session trading begins the market will makes its decision – is the pair at a point where the slide is feeling more like a dry burn, or we gonna continue on to slide in unbridled lubed up fashion as we did on Friday?  I got the levels for you to know and make your decisions:

Support is at 1.4820 and also at 1.4800.  While  a move below 1.4800 does indicated a further move down, this is one of those well loved stop hunting levels – meaning the break may not be clean and may whipsaw through the level, back and forth.  Overall it is a bearish sign for the EUR though.  Minor support comes in around 1.4775, with further support at 1.4740-1.4730, 1.4690 and 1.4665.

On the upside, we have a ways to go before we have any confirmation of a reversal back higher.  The first one comes at 1.4870, but is not real meaningful.  Although if 1.4880 (buffer added)  can be moved through it does indicate a test of 1.4900.  Between 1.4900-1.4920 is a bit no mans land.  Getting above 1.4930 indicates another upside target of 1.4950-1.4960.  But be careful, again, these are not real important levels.  Further buying back above 1.4970-1.4980 will likely result in more aggressive buying higher (not necessarily today) with a target of 1.5030.  The 1.4970-80 level is more meaningful.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

There was some volatility Thursday around the news releases, but ultimately the pair stayed within its range and there is nothing really nothing new to report.  No major levels were broken, and while there were some swift moves in the pair support and resistance caught the flier moves only to put it right back in it’s range to play.

The support which is important right now, at least for short-term traders, is the lows between 1.5040-1.5030.  A drop below this area indicates a further selling into the 1.5000 region and then 1.4980.  There is some minor support at 1.5020.

A further move below 1.4980 could mean a larger move overall towards the bottom of range, but will need to push through support at 1.4965, 1.4950 and 1.4920 to do so.

On the upside, a move above 1.5080 indicates a test of 1.5100, with further rises targeting 1.5120 and 1.5140.  A break above 1.5150 indicates a larger overall move higher with resistance likely to occur near 1.5180 and 1.5215.

Market moving economic data is due out at 13:30 GMT – US Non-farm payroll numbers.  Keep an eye out for that.

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Enjoy and have a great night or day trading!

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is a daily look at the EUR/USD currency pair for December 2, 2009.

Since Nov 27, we have had a nice short term trend higher within the larger range.  Currently the EUR/USD is trading right around 1.5100 which is towards the upper part of this overall range.  A trendline can be drawn along this movement – on my own chart I have drawn two: one based on extreme moves and one normalized (see this months “Stock & Commodities” magazine for my article on using trendlines).  At this moment those trendlines provide a band of support between 1.5060-1.5040.  This band also aligns with horizontal support, so a dip below that area indicates a further slide.

Further support is at 1.4980-1.4960 (not expected to be broken today).  A break below this, targets the lower support levels of the range including 1.4920 and 1.4880.  With an average daily range of 135 pips, these last two levels are forward looking and not targets expected today.

Monday rallied right to the end of the day and resistance is now that high right around 1.5120.  A pop above that level will need to get through 1.5150 to indicate another swing higher. Targets for a another swing higher are 1.5185, 1.5215 and 1.5240.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Wow, I can’t believe it is December already.  Oh well, nice weather here where I am so I can’t complain

Relatively calm day on Monday for the pair as not only did it stay within the range mentioned in yesterday’s post, it  only moved about 100 pips.

There are short term trades in here, but ultimately this remains a range bound pair.

Resistance is at 1.5040 with a move beyond that indicating a move to test swing highs at 1.5080.  Targets and resistance beyond is at 1.5100, 1.5120 and 1.5140-1.5150.

Minor support is at 1.5000 with more substantial support just below recent swing lows at 1.4970.  Support beyond is at 1.4950 and 1.4920.  While a move below this is not highly probable, targets beyond are 1.4890, 1.4870 and 1.4840.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

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