The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 24.   After you are done here, you can check out a potential trade set up in the AUD/CAD (it is a longer term potential trade, not yet triggered).

Tuesday saw some whipsaw actions in the pair, but ultimately the movement was contained within 100 pips and has created a short-term consolidation pattern not far from the range lows.

On Monday the pair bounced off 1.3460 and this level may provide support again.  If not we have range swing lows between 1.3450-1.3430.  If this area is reached a slight penetration of area, without an actual break, is a high probability due to the market indecision.  If a breakout does occur, I prefer to wait for the fist pullback.  If that pullback is held off by the former range lows the breakout has a much greater chance of being legitimate.

Target, if the market breaks down below 1.3430, is 1.3060.

Resistance comes in at 1.3570 with further resistance at 1.3600-1.3630 and 1.3660.  Resistance continues through to 1.3700.  A push through this level puts range highs in sight and may make another re-test of the highs likely (but that will be looked at tomorrow if the market does in fact go higher from here).

This pair remains in a sideways consolidation in a longer term downtrend.

Cory Mitchell, CMT

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If you have been following my analysis lately, you know there were some mixed signals in the market.  Adam lays out his thoughts in this new video, and poses a very credible case that maybe the Euro has gone to far.  Looking for some straight forward analysis?  It was recorded yesterday, but after today’s move is very relevant.

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Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

A Return to Volatility…

Tuesday saw a turn of volatility relative to the quietness of Monday.  The break above 1.3660 was short lived, and collapsed back through the former resistance level, erasing the possibility that a minor uptrend (within the larger downtrend) was emerging.

If we zero in the last two weeks, we see a generally ranging market, with a bias to the downside as the overall trend would indicate.    Movements, as mentioned yesterday, can be erratic and signals based on insignificant support/resistance within this range provide lower probability signals.  The EUR/USD is a trending currency pair, and therefore I personally prefer to back off during times like these, and wait for a larger trending move – even when short-term trading (but that is just me).

Overall, 1.3700 is now the swing high to pay attention to, as well as the swing low at 1.3440.

Some resistance is likely 1.3580-1.3600 and 1.3660 once again.  Support comes in just below 1.3500 followed by 1.3480 and 1.3440.  Target beyond is 1.3400.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The EUR/USD could not not get above 1.3800 after making attempts earlier this week.  There is a resistance band running above 1.3800 and it was said in previous posts that not being able to climb above that point is bearish for the EUR.  On Wednesday the EUR fell apart, falling close to 200 pips after not being able to penetrate that level and then breaking short-term support.

From here we have two potential scenarios:  The recent lows are broken and we continue the downtrend. Or the lows hold and we are in a trading range (current).

Support comes in at 1.3580.  A break below is likely to test 1.3560 and lows near 1.3530.  If the lows are broken next major target is 1.3400.  If this develops, some support is also likely at 1.3500 and 1.3440-1.3430.

On the upside, there is resistance up to 1.3640.  A rise above is likely to continue to push higher.  1.3700-1.3730 comes in as resistance, followed by 1.3760 and 1.3800.  Movement into this area establishes a ranging environment.  Movement above 1.3840 indicates a further move  higher.  A move below 1.3530 indicates further downside action.  Until those points are taken out, I am treating this as a range.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Quiet, relatively flat Monday for the  EUR/USD (get a longer term analysis via the link).  In fact, very little has changed since the last outlook…the levels to watch remain the same going into Tuesday.  Initial support is at 1.4120.  Support beyond is at 1.4100, 1.4085 and 1.4065.  At 1.4030 is the recent swing lows, with a drop below indicating another wave down for the the EUR.

The market has already corrected into the 1.4160-1.4180 region mentioned in prior posts and with that correction having taken place the overall bias is for a further decline in the EUR.    A rise above 1.4230 would challenge that outlook at least for the short-term.  There is a band of resistance which extends from 1.4180-1.4220, and Monday the pair could not get through this – it stalled before 1.4200.  A push above the band, 1.4230, indicates movement into 1.4260, with additional resistance at 1.4280 and 1.4300.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The EUR/USD (instant analysis of any symbol via the link) has support which sits just above 1.4120.  Support beyond is at 1.4100, 1.4085 and 1.4065.  At 1.4030 is the recent swing lows, with a drop below indicating another wave down for the the EUR.

The market has already corrected into the 1.4160-1.4180 region mentioned in prior posts and with that correction having taken place the overall bias is for a further decline in the EUR.  A rise above 1.4230 would challenge that outlook.  There is a band of resistance which extends from 1.4180-1.4220.  A push above 1.4230 indicates movement into 1.4260, with additional resistance at 1.4280 and 1.4300.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

A more normalized day on Thursday with the EUR/USD stabilizing.  It moved lower in the early session but did recover to only finish down slightly.  The correction mentioned yesterday did occur; a new low was made first and then the EUR moved higher to test resistance which developed at 1.4140.  Now that the correction has taken place, albeit minor, overall the technical outlook for the EUR is weak going into Friday and next week.

A move above 1.4150 would provide evidence that the EUR/USD is not due to go lower quite yet.   The push through 1.4150 is likely to target the resistance of 1.4160-1.4180.  Beyond that there is further resistance at 1.4200-.4220.

On the downside, a move below 1.4050 is likely to test recent lows near 1.4030.  Beyond this support is likely to develop between 1.4015-1.3985, at 1.3960 and 1.3920.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Another tough day for the EUR, falling 200 pips at one point against the USD and currently sits just off the lows, trading at 1.4100.

The daily charts show a clear wave down underway which indicates a bias towards a further fall for the EUR. The pair does appear set up for a short-term correction higher, but with really no support under this market it may come after selling into the 1.4050-1.4000 region.

With the pair trading just above lows at 1.4080, a drop below 1.4070 is likely to trigger selling into 1.4055.  Movement through 1.4045 will target 1.4015-1.3985.

A correction higher, if it is to occur, is likely to move into the 1.4160-1.4180 region. A continued rise through this resistance area is likely to target the minor swing highs between 1.4200 and 1.4220.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Yup, it is a holiday for the US so not expecting much for today.  As of right now the pair is sitting just under the resistance level at 1.4380, and that resistance extends to 1.4400.  A break above is likely to target 1.4415-1.4420, beyond that 1.4440-1.4445 followed by 1.4470.

On the downside there is little resistance till 1.4340-1.4330 followed by 1.4300 and 1.4370-1.4360.  Short term there are no real trends apparent as the pair has been “rangey” (a good technical term) since late December.

Keeping it short and sweet.  Have a good long weekend for those who observe  it.

Below is the top user feedback video ever on this site! The FREE video, or something else on the video site, is really resonating with traders.  I have been posting this video for a week or so now and my inbox is getting flooded with people saying they loved it.  I don’t know how long the video will be available, so if you have not had the chance to check it out I recommend doing so quickly.

Check out this “strange” Forex video here:

http://www.customforextrading.com/y/?i=1083859&u=3&l=f15

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.