The following is your daily EUR/USD analysis heading into March 12.

The pair barely had a pulse Thursday, covering a range of only 70 pips at the time of this writing.

I feel like a bit of a broken record saying the same thing every day, but I continue to be of the view that waiting for a trend is superior to trading within the range where support and resistance hold little significance.  That said there are a several points to watch…

Currently we are near the upper end of the range, 1.3700 and 1.3740 are likely resistance levels.  Beyond this resistance comes in at 1.3800 and 1.3840.  Breaking above 1.3800 indicates a further move higher as the downward daily trend would be broken.  Given that false breakouts are highly probable, a resumed breakout direction move after a pullback is my preferred method of entry (ie. breakout, pullback, move back in breakout direction, entry).

Minor support comes in at 1.3620 followed by 1.3540 and 1.3440 – this is a pivotal level and very likely beyond the reach of Friday’s daily range, but a move below indicates another leg in the downtrend.

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The following is your daily outlook for the EUR/USD -March 11

A push higher on Wednesday still kept the pair lower than the previous swing high, thus tightening the short-term triangle formation.  The high Wednesday is within a couple pips of the downward trendline (hourly) which connected the last two swings highs.

Ultimately the pair remains between the major pivotal levels of 1.3740 and 1.3430.  I have pointed this out many times, but support and resistance within this range are not crucial, and since the EUR/USD is a trending currency trading with the range is not an ideal strategy.

That said, there are of course opportunities for short-term traders.   The minor trendline resistance mentioned above comes in at 1.3670 with horizontal resistance at 1.3680.  1.3700 ad 1.3740 are more significant resistance beyond.  Movement above 1.3740 indicates an further upward correction.

Overall trend still remains down on the longer term charts, and the pair works through a sideways correction.    Support is likely in the short-term through 1.3630-1.3615 followed by 1.3540-1.3530.  A break beyond this is likely to challenge the lower portions of the range, namely 1.3500-1.3490 and 1.3430.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

There was some movement today, but the daily range has narrowed.  The EUR/USD is a trending currency and will eventually make a trending move, but now it trades between two pivotal levels, 1.3430 and 1.3740.

The recent swing have given us some support and resistance within the range:  Support comes in at 1.3540-1.3525.  A drop below this area is likely to head towards the lower part of the range encountering more support at 1.3490, 1.3460 and 1.3430.  A break below this major level indicates another leg down in the trend.

Resistance is evident in the area of 1.3700 followed by 1.3740 and 1.3785.  A move up into this area and beyond 1.3800 would break the daily downward trendline indicating a further correction.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Here is your daily outlook for the EUR/USD – March 9, 2010.

The pair continues to move in a sideways fashion.  On the hourly chart we have converging short-term trendlines forming a triangle .  Given that the triangle has formed within a well-established range does not indicate a breakout.  Although, a move above 1.3715 would be our first indication of the possibility, yet would need to pass the resistance levels mentioned below to be a breakout.

The trend remains down, although the EUR/USD is in a correction (albeit sideways).  Downward trendline intersects between 1.3750-1.3800.  Significant horizontal resistance comes in around this 1.38 level as well.

In the short-term, resistance comes in at 1.3700 and 1.3740.  Beyond this there is a resistance area between 1.3790-1.3840.  A break beyond this would indicate a reversal and a move higher.

Minor support has developed at 1.3600 and beyond this at 1.3550-1.3530.  Major swing lows and support levels come in at 1.3450-1.3430.  A break below this indicates another leg down in the downtrend.

Despite the fact this range has sustained itself for some time now, range trading the EUR/USD is generally not a high probability trade due to its high propensity to trend.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

This is your weekly analysis of the EUR/USD.  This is a longer term view of the major currency pair than what is analyzed in the (posted) daily analysis.

On Thursday and Friday in the daily analysis, I said that we needed confirmation for the breakout.  False breakouts remain a high probability thus confirmation is needed.  The pair did no confirm the break and finished the week well off the high.  Thus the pair remains within the range.

The EUR/USD is not a high probability to range trade, even though over the past weeks range trading would have been profitable.  This is because the USD is a trending currency, which means ranges within pairs which contain the USD are unlikely to be sustained for long periods of time.  Most traders, especially longer term traders, will find it beneficial to back off during times such as these and wait for a trending move to occur.

From the daily chart we can see that the trend is still down.  A confirmed break above 1.3750 has a target of 1.4030.  This would serve in breaking the downward trendline and potentially setting up a larger reversal…but price action in between will determine that and if it occurs we will analyze that next week.

The weekly average range for the pair is about 300 pips, so with a close of 1.3602 we would need to see an above average move to reach the target this week.

A confirmed break below 1.3430 would target 1.3140.  This would mean a 5th wave (third leg) down and a continuation of the downtrend.

Based on the price action we have seen, this market is very choppy and there is no need to anticipate which direction the market will go.  Wait for a breakout and then a confirmation (a retest or pullback towards the breakout point, the level holds up and a renewed push in the breakout direction occurs).  The targets are not likely to be seen this week so patience is the key in this market.

EUR/USD - Daily - FreeStockCharts.com

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 5, 2010.

The EUR pulled back today, and currently trades near the middle of the former range.  As mentioned in yesterday’s post on confirmation of the breakout, the pair needs to climb above the resistance now at 1.3740-1.3750 and then ultimately break the trendline at 1.3800 in order to confirm a larger correction.

At the moment, the pair remains choppy.  Longer term trend remains down, while we have higher lows and higher highs over the last few days.

I do not give much significance to support and resistance within this range.  Although some support has developed just above 1.3540, and is likely at 1.3520, 1.3490 and key support at 1.3440-1.3430.

Upside resistance, not significant, but likely at 1.3620-1.3640, 1.3700 and then the resistance level to add evidence to a further move higher – 1.3740

Non-Farm Payrolls out tomorrow could be the catalyst in moving this pair back into a trend, and will at minimum expand volatility.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD analysis for March 2.

The EUR/USD continues to float between important levels, but will not move beyond in either direction.  We have a short-term range, but longer term the EUR/USD is not a range trading currency pair.

Overall the pair remains in a downtrend. This will not be challenged until the pair gets over current resistance at 1.3700 followed by further resistance at 1.3800.  The trendline approximately intersects this level.   False breakout are a high probability.  A break above 1.3700 accompanied by a pullback and then a renewed push higher would provide further confirmation of a continued upward correction.  Interim resistance comes in at 1.3740-50 and 1.3780.

Significant support on the downside remains between 1.3460-1.3440.  Levels between this and 1.3700 are not high probability support/resistance levels.

The swing highs are moving lower, but so far the swing lows have not moved lower since Feb 19.  A move above a swing high (1.3700) points to a further move higher.  After not making new swing highs a move lower below the swing low (1.3440) would indicate another leg down.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

This is the daily outlook for the EUR/USD on March 1, 2010.

Initial trading this week as pushed the Euro higher, congruent with a short-term uptrend since the the pair could not break the pivotal lows at 1.3440 on Feb 24 and 25.

As mentioned in the weekly analysis of the pair, signals are mixed.  Failure to break the lows show signs of a potential bottom at least for a short-term reversal.  For that to be confirmed we need a break above a recent swing high – the main one in sight is 1.3700.

Even so, given the action as of late, false breakout are a high probability.  A break above 1.3700 accompanied by a pullback and then a renewed push higher would provide further confirmation of a continued upward correction.

The trend remains down, and currently the daily trend line intersects with swing highs at 1.3800.  Thus a push above 1.3700 could challenge this level on the correction higher.  Interim resistance comes in at 1.3740-50 and 1.3780.

Levels between 1.3440 and 1.3700 are not particularly significant although 1.3550 should provide support on moves lower followed by 1.3510.  Failure to hold is likely to retest the swing lows.  A break below 1.3440 indicates another leg down in the downtrend.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Well, I am getting over a cold and rather tired, but after just watching Canada win another two Gold medals my spirits were lifted and so I put together this quick video on the EUR/USD.  It looks at the daily chart, what I am waiting for and why I am not real interested in it until it breaks out.  And of course I look at where a breakout is likely to go and how I trade it.

I want to trade aggressively when a trend presents it self, but I will sit back until the pair shows signs of this once again.

So forgive my cold, here is the video….

Here is the link to the article I mention in the video – http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/10/range-trade-without-usd.asp

I see the video got a little blurry when uploaded to youtube, so here is a chart which you can refer to as well. This has the same markings as the chart in the video so you can clearly see the levels being watched.

Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your Forex, CFD, or Commodity broker? Check out one of my brokers at Forexyard.

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EUR/USD Daily, FreeStockCharts

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The choppy trading continues as the EUR/USD moves within a trading channel with a downside bias.   The hourly chart give us a good snapshot – swing highs are staying in tact as the pair experiences trouble in reaching major swing highs, but new lows have been made.  The strong trend has subsided for the time being though, as the market is showing strong short-term retracements after putting in new lows.

As mentioned in previous analysis pieces, since many of the levels within the current channel are insignificant, movements can be erratic and unpredictable.  Despite this, the bias remains down on all time frames.

Support was just broken through at 1.3500.  If the rate can remain below, the target is former lows at 1.3460-1.3440.  That low is significant as a drop below once again confirms this market will continue in a downtrend.  Short-term retracements can occur and resistance currently comes in at 1.3550, 1.3580 and 1.3630.  1.3700 is the significant and pivotal swing high beyond.

Break below the key support at 1.3440 has a target of 1.3400-1.3380.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.