The EUR/USD pair has been in a tightening range after a very strong move a couple weeks ago.  This has formed a triangle formation and points to breakout either higher or lower of roughly 400 pips from the breakout point.  With the overall trend still up, the bias is for a break to the upside, yet the lower support line of the triangle will need to hold.  Otherwise a move down is expected.  On the downside (and upside) there are major support levels (resistance levels) which need to watched after the breakout occurs – these include recent swing low (and high) areas.

Source: Forexyard - EUR/USD - 4 Hour

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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So I was about to do an analysis of the USD/JPY and then I was sent this video which is basically exactly what I was going to say.  If you follow any of my analysis, I use a a lot of chart patterns.  You can learn what patterns I like to trade, and how to trade them in my book, or you can  watch these guys videos.  Often they provide a very similar outlook to my own views, and I feel fully confident in providing their analysis,videos and potential service to you.  They provide a fantastic service if you are interested, or you can just enjoy the videos with no strings attached.

This video looks at the longer term view of the USD/JPY forex currency pair, and where it is likely to go.  The video is great in that it shows how to technically analyze forex charts, and then also gives a bit of an intro to the methods that they use over at Ino.  Great stuff!  I think these video are great, they are free, but if you are interested in learning more you can sign up for a free trial to one of the most premier services (you get so many things with a subscription!) in the trading industry.  Or…just simply enjoy this great totally free video analysis of the USD/JPY pair.

http://www.ino.com/info/400/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

All the Best in your trading,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

The eur/usd currency pair scorched higher today, moving almost double its 12 day average (daily) range.

Breaking above daily support at 1.4000 it appears a new swing up is developing.  The next resistance level is at 1.4170 with a push beyond likely to test the recent highs at 1.4330.  Moves beyond indicates profit targets of 1.4590 and a further target of 1.4800 (rounded down).

The pair is a medium term uptrend which has accelerated higher.  This is common for tradables in this stage of a market trend.

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other forex and stock market trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, EUR/USD Daily Chart

To Your Trading Success,

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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In my last post on the longer term view of this pair, I mentioned that how the pair reacted at 1.0800 would be critical in its longer term movements (this analysis was contributed to ForexPros.com and can be seen under my submitted analysis – My analysis of the eur/usd and usd/jpy can be viewed daily, all day, on the homepage of the site as I provide an idea of what to expect through the upcoming trading day).

We know know that it reacted strongly with the USD gaining over 700 pips against the CAD since that level was touched.

Several factors point that we are in the start of a new uptrend.  RSI has moved up above 70 which it did not do on the downswing.  Thus we have a breakout on the RSI.  The (small) correction also held above 40, which is a strong sign.

With the rate surging, at the moment, higher we will likely test the trend resistance line.  This trend line is just below the former swing high at 1.1750, the former swing high is at 1.1800.  Obviously a break of that level will be required to really confirmed a reversal and a new uptrend.

The trend line moved down over time so the break of that trend line can give us early indication of a  move ever higher.

The break above 1.1800 indicates a move to 1.2800 over the long term.  This could be adjusted as low as 1.2400 depending on the when the breakout occurs.  The longer it takes to breakout, and thus the lower the trendline price is when the breakout occurs, the lower the profit target will be.

Failure to move above 1.1750 (this will decrease over time as the upper trend line falls) and ultimately 1.1800 would mean a testing of the small correction lows at 1.1200 and a more significant correction.  A break below 1.1200 would indicate further weakness and a likely resumption of the downtrend.  That downtrend would be confirmed with a move below 1.8000.  Intermediate support between 1.1200 and 1.8000 is 1.0950.  If that level can hold, it will likely be choppy trading for a while as the market chooses a direction.

BOTTOM LINE:  Right now it appears we are heading even higher, but we are still in a downward sloping trend channel.  Corrections should hold above 1.1200 and and resistance is expected between 1.1700-1.1800.

Keep in mind, oil is breaking hard, and you see that analysis at http://www.darkpooltraders.com/vb/energy-futures/106-oil-about-break.html.  Get the analysis and updates to that trade there.

Falling oil prices hurt the CAD, which will mean the USD is likely to rise in relation to the CAD.  It is not a perfect indicator, but as a general guideline it works well.  This means the USD/CAD currency pair is likely to push higher as oil prices fall.  While this is not an oil analysis, a move back to former lows is not expected in oil, so the oil fall is likely to be  just  a natural correction.  Thus I believe oil will fall, but for a short time.  Large moves in oil can affect the pair dramatically…as they did today (June 22).  Thus, keep an eye on oil when following this pair.

The average daily range of the pair is currently hovering around 150 pips per 24 hour period starting at 00:00 GMT.  Keep this in mind when making projections for day trading and when using profit targets with time constraints.

Please add comments or if you questions please ask them view the comments link at the bottom of the post.

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other forex and stock market trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, USD/CAD Daily Chart

To Your Trading Success,

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

———

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

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The pair is in a sharp downward sloping wedge.

The interesting thing is this wedge’s apex is right at the major support level of 95.60.  Thus, this wedge can give us an early indication of which way the market is likely to act off this support level.

From the chart you can see the trendlines of this wedge.  A break above indicates a move of 75 pips from the breakout price, either up or down.

As of when I post this the upside trendline is at 96.00 and the downside breakout price is 95.80.  The risk is small for the potential reward.

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, USD/JPY 30 Min Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
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The pair just broke minor and a major support

Source: Forexyard EUR/USD 15 Min Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

June 18, 5:44 AM GMT

Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions. If you still have questions after, feel free to comment

With a short term uptrend in place we have a favorable set up for a buy.  A push above 1.3980 would indicate a profit target of 1.4040.

Another trade is buying near the bottom of the current range and using the same profit target.

The short term uptrend remains in tact as long as 1.3860 is not broken.  This trend will rise over time though.

The pair currently trades at 1.3937.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

———-

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
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I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

If you look on the USD/JPY daily chart I have attached below there a few interesting things to point out.

The first is the the pair is trading in a large range.  This means that breakouts within the range may be stifled from reaching their full potential unless a break of the larger daily range also occurs.  This does not mean there is not profit opportunity though.

On the daily chart we can see the pair created a head and shoulders pattern.  The pair broke below the neckline (upward sloping line), but failed to take out the lows of the formation (94.00).  The pair bounced off the this level, but failed to reach the height of the right shoulder from the pattern.  This puts the bias downwards.  We also can draw a trendline along the top of the price action and see the trend is now down.

The sell off has been relatively steep the last few days, and will likely pause at or before the 94.00 level.  About 94.30-94.40 is the current target.

At that point we will see what the market does.  A break below 94.00 would target 87.00 over the long term, which also happens to be the January lows.

If 94.00 holds the trend lines drawn will still likely have an impact.  Expect resistance at the horizontal levels as well as both the falling and rising trend lines.  These trend lines extend out and have an impact on future prices.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, USD/JPY Daily Chart

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
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I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

———————-

If you read my earlier post about the potential trade today in the pair (http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/1742) you will see the trade never materialized.  In the comments to that post I wrote why the trade didn’t materialize.

That the trade didn’t happen is fine, but the drop below the 1.3800 was a bit more unexpected and deserves a closer look.  A sustained move below 1.3800 points to a longer term topping pattern having completed.  The pattern is large and provides a profit target of 1.3300.

A daily close below 1.3800 would be ideal.  A break below 1.3750 would also confirm the further move lower as this level is where a  trend line sits.  A push higher off the trend line and back above 1.3800 puts us in no mans land and we will need to wait to see confirmation of a move back upwards.  This pattern often sees a pullback after a breakout so a pause and move up is not unexpected before further declines.

Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions. If you still have questions after, feel free to comment

Source: Forexyard, EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Want to learn more about chart patterns? See this.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist
Remember, False Breakouts are Tradable Too!

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

The EUR/USD has formed a “sling shot” in the RSI indicator.  It can be seen on the hourlies through the dailies.  This indicates a day trade but also a swing trade as the sling shot unfolds on longer time frames.  We will look at the hourly chart for this potential trade.

The sling shot indicates a low was likely put in at 1.3933 (older 1.3913 low can also be used to determine stop).  Thus the likely move is upwards with a profit target of 1.4140 – 1.4155.   The pair closed Friday at 1.4013.  This means the profit target is well within the daily range we are currently seeing in the pair (roughly 200 pip average move).

UPDATE:  10:20 PM GMT, the market is now open and has fallen in early trading.  This makes for a more attractive reward to risk on the potential trade.  It it not advised to try to catch a bottom in a falling market.  Wait for a rise before potentially entering long.

Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions. If you still have questions after, feel free to comment

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist
Remember, False Breakouts are Tradable Too!

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.