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Definitely a tough day for the EUR.  The pair fell over 200 pips at one point, but closed just inside that.  The move was far beyond average, but as mentioned in previous posts, the 1.4500 level was very important and when the market broke through it, it fell aggressively and swiftly.

This has put support at 1.4300.  A break below indicates a move to 1.4250 and 1.4225.  1.4200 is also support but  extends down to 1.4175.

Resistance comes in at 1.4375, followed by 1.4425.  Movement above that level could trigger some buying.  1.4500, which is the old support, will act resistance.

This is still a technically weak pair.  No swing highs have been taken out since Dec 3.  Looking at longer term charts the indicators are showing oversold reading, but until this pairs shows resilience in actual rate movement, probabilities still lie on the downside.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following are your forex day trading signals, or forex analysis, for Dec 15.  Monday was a a rather dull day, with the pair holding in a 80 pip range for the day; the average daily range for the pair is 135 pips.  So it was definitely a quiet day, with little news to spark any action.  The stock market was also rather sedate.

News out of the Euro Zone and the USA Tuesday is likely to bring us more towards the average daily range.

Resistance is currently between 1.4680 & 1.4690.  Further resistance is offered just above 1.4700-1.4720.  Movement above indicates the possibility of a false downward break, and that recent highs at 1.4760 and/or 1.4780 will be tested.  If the pair approaches 1.4800 it is likely to move through, with a target of 1.4815.

Some minor support levels have developed based on Monday’s trading.  The first is 1.4640 with a move below targeting 1.4620.  1.4620 is also a support level with a move below it testing lows between 1.4600-1.4585.   A sustained break below is likely to target 1.4525 and beyond that, if needed, 1.4500-1.4485.

Trade with the trend but don’t become attached to it, especially with market moving news out today.

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Have a great week!

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Tuesday was fairly reserved, keeping within a range of about 80 pips which is well below average.  Given that we are very close to a pivotal level this can be expected.  The range that has established provides opportunities to trade either side of the market.   The bias is still up and another wave higher is likely, yet as we push at a critical resistance point we need to be aware of the targets on the downside as well.

Support is 1.4940, with a  break below indicating a move to 1.4910.  Beyond 1.4880 and 1.4840 are the targets/support if needed.

A break above 1.5020 indicates a test of former highs at 1.5060.  This level was mentioned in yesterday’s post, and the market could not push through it.  If we do break to the upside and also move through 1.5060, further targets are 1.5115.  There is little resistance beyond but prices should stall today by 1.5140 if we do in fact break to new (yearly) highs.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

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The extended target of 1.5020 was touched on Monday after a sharp rally.  Until the last few minutes, our other resistance level (now support) held at 1.4980 containing the movement between these two levels.

If the move below in 1.4980 is a breakout it indicates a move  to 1.4940. Support and targets beyond are are at 1.4910, 1.4880 and 1.4840.

A rise back above 1.5000 will likely test the Monday’s highs, and if those high at 1.5020 are exceeded expect a swing higher to 1.5060.  With little resistance beyond the next targets are 1.5085 and 1.5115.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Support above 1.4800 held once again on Friday, and with a move higher in early trading Monday we have indications of another swing higher.

A break above 1.4920 indicated another move higher, which we have now seen as the pair is currently at 1.4934.  Targets/resistance at 1.4950 and 1.4980.  Additional targets which are possible, but outside today’s likely range are at 1.5020 and 1.5045.

A drop below 1.4880 indicates a further slide – and that at least for the now the breakout higher was a false break – to test the lower range at 1.4840 and 1.4815.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Yesterday’s upside target/resistance was hit at 1.4840, and held briefly but was soon overcome as the EUR/USD surged higher after the FOMC announcement out of the US.  Even with the aggressive movements, rates were stalled at the higher resistance levels mentioned in the Nov. 3 post.

The high of the move Wednesday is almost exactly a 61.8% retracement of the downswing starting on Oct. 26.

A drop below 1.4820 is likely to move to 1.4770.  Support beyond is at 1.4740 followed by 1.4700.

A rise above 1.4870 indicates a test of Wed. swing highs at 1.4900.  A break above 1.4920 indicates another move higher.  Targets/resistance at 1.4950 and 1.4980.

Keep in mind the US Unemployment Claims numbers come out at 13:30 GMT. Another market mover generally.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Want to learn more about trading the forex markets?  Want an ebook that can offer you tools, techniques and a system to trade the market effectively?  Then check out my latest ebook:

Profiting From the Forex Market Using Chart Patterns

The following is the daily analysis which covers the levels to watch for on November 3, 2009.

The EUR/USD did push off the 1.4680 support level and reached the upside target of 1.4840 yesterday. This put the EUR/USD at an inflection point.

From the current rate of 1.4780 if the pair pushes back above 1.4815 it indicates a test of 1.4840-1.4860, and beyond that 1.4900 and 1.4920 if needed.

A drop below 1.4755 indicates a test of minor support at 1.4730-1.4720.  A  breach of that level indicates a retest of the lows near 1.4680.  Support beyond is at 1.4660 and 1.4620.

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Want to learn more about trading the forex markets?  Want an ebook that can offer you tools, techniques and a system to trade the market effectively?  Then check out my latest ebook:

Profiting From the Forex Market Using Chart Patterns

EUR/USD day trading analysis for November 2, 2009

Late trading on Friday and early trading Monday has seen the EUR fall to very near Thursday’s low.

1.4680 offers support in conjunction with minor support at 1.4700 for the EUR/USD pair. A breach of this region suggests a further decline. Support/targets on a further decline Monday are 1.4660, 1.4620 and 1.4600.

A rise above 1.4760 indicates a short-term rise. Target on the upside is 1.4800 followed by 1.4840-1.4860 if needed.

Looking for an analysis of the stock market? You can view my analysis of the S&P for the week of Nov 2 -6 on the blog post below, or here: http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/2058

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
-Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Want to learn more about trading the forex markets?  Want an ebook that can offer you tools, techniques and a system to trade the market effectively?  Then check out my latest ebook:

Profiting From the Forex Market Using Chart Patterns