Strong buying in the EUR through early trading  and currently sits at 1.4500, an interesting level.  Continued movement above 1.4500 indicates at least a short-term swing higher for the EUR.  Resistance beyond this level is scattered and does not come in significantly until the 1.4600 area, 1.4625, 1.4665 and the 1.4700 region.

On the downside minor support comes in between 1.4470-1.4460, 1.4435-1.4425 with additional support coming in around 1.4400.  1.4355 and 1.4320 provide support in the case of a further reversal.

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The NFP report is due out Friday, and it is likely to cause a lot of volatility.  Estimates of the number vary greatly, so almost any number is likely to cause a stir.

Currently the pair sits just above 1.4300.  Short-term support is there, as well as the short-term trend line has also worked its way up to this level.  If broken, further support is at 1.4280-1.4270 and 1.4255-1.4250.  1.4220 is the 3 month low and a drop below would indicate another wave lower.  Support through 1.4200-1.4175 will need to be broken as well for that to occur.

A push back above 1.4340 gives us indication that the pair may once again move higher; targets are 1.4360 and 1.4390.  Movement through 1.4390 is likely to test 1.4410, 1.4440.

Keep in mind the NPF report could easily(and will most likely) move the pair beyond its average daily range.

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On Wednesday the pair had a broader range than average with the ISM data helping pushing the EUR higher.  FOMC Minutes later in the day caused another brief surge, but ultimately the release was benign.

Early trading in the Thursday session has the EUR pushing above Wednesday’s high at 1.4435.  A continued move higher is likely to encounter resistance by 1.4450-1.4460 followed by 1.4485.  1.4500 is a key level; former support which will now act as resistance.  Resistance beyond is at 1.4515, 1.4540 and 1.4565-1.4575.

A drop below 1.4380 will target 1.4365, 1.4340-1.4330.  Short-term trendline support comes in just below 1.4300 with additional support at 1.4280 and 1.4260.

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The pair tried to reach the target of 1.4500 on Tuesday, but failed, falling back below Monday’s high.  That area, just under 1.4460 provided resistance again later in the day on Tuesday when the pair tried to rally again, but was stalled.  The pair is now mid-range, and a break below short-term support at 1.4340 indicates movement towards recent lows.   Support comes in just above 1.4300, trend line support  (short-term) is at 1.4280 and horizontal support is at 1.4260 and 1.4220.  Target beyond is1.4180.

A push through 1.4380 is likely to retest 1.4400-1.4410.  Resistance is about every 20 pips above this until 1.4500.  Further resistance is expected around 1.4540 and then 1.4575-1.4590.

If  the major news events scheduled for Wednesday come in as surprises, it is likely to be a volatile day.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
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Strong rally for the the EUR on Monday and the sideways action later in the day has given us some good levels to watch.  1.4400 is current support for the EUR/USD, but support is also apparent right through to 1.4370.  A break below that is likely to target support at 1.4335-1.4325 followed by 1.4300 and then 1.4270-1.4260 if needed.

On the upside, a rise above 1.4430 would give us our first indication of strength and would be confirmed by a rise above Monday’s high of 1.4455.  A break above indicates further strength into 1.4500-1.4510.  This level is old support and will act as new resistance.  Further resistance is expected around 1.4540 and then 1.4575-1.4590.

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Happy New Year everyone.    For at least the first few minutes of trading here the pair has not done too much, but did have some movement off the open but as of this moment has stabilized.  This has placed support between 1.4300-1.4285 with additional support at 1.4270.  If the pair moves beyond this, a reasonable target is 1.4235 followed by 1.4220-1.4210 if needed.  1.4200-1.4185 acts as further support beyond.

On the upside resistance has formed just below 1.4340.  A move through is likely to find some resistance at 1.4360 followed by 1.4400 and 1.4440 if needed.

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The trend is still down, but appears to be waning slightly; divergence is apparent on several times frames (although this is not a signal by itself, price needs to confirm).

Near-term support is at 1.4260, but 1.4250 is also likely to act as support.  A break below 1.4250 indicates a move to 1.4150. There is interim support in the area of 1.4200 and 1.4175.

Minor resistance is at 1.4300-1.4315.  A 50 hour moving average which has worked quite well on the fall so far comes in at about 1.4330 and should also provide some resistance. If not, further resistance comes in 1.4380-1.4400.  A break above 1.4420 indicates further buying can be expected and there is minimal resistance until 1.4500.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
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As we head into this trading week, the trend is still down, but appears to be waning slightly; divergence is apparent on several times frames (although this is not a signal by itself, price needs to confirm).

Near-term support is at 1.4300. A drop below is likely to test former lows at 1.4260, but 1.4250 is also likely to act as support. A break below 1.4250 indicates a move to 1.4150. There is interim support in the area of 1.4200 and 1.4175.

Minor resistance is at 1.4355-1.4360. A 50 hour moving average which has worked quite well on the fall so far comes in at about 1.4380 and should also provide some resistance. If not, further resistance comes in 1.4400-1.4415. A break above 1.4420 indicates further buying can be expected and there is minimal resistance until 1.4500.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
-Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Definitely a tough day for the EUR.  The pair fell over 200 pips at one point, but closed just inside that.  The move was far beyond average, but as mentioned in previous posts, the 1.4500 level was very important and when the market broke through it, it fell aggressively and swiftly.

This has put support at 1.4300.  A break below indicates a move to 1.4250 and 1.4225.  1.4200 is also support but  extends down to 1.4175.

Resistance comes in at 1.4375, followed by 1.4425.  Movement above that level could trigger some buying.  1.4500, which is the old support, will act resistance.

This is still a technically weak pair.  No swing highs have been taken out since Dec 3.  Looking at longer term charts the indicators are showing oversold reading, but until this pairs shows resilience in actual rate movement, probabilities still lie on the downside.

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Wednesday, despite lots of economic data, traded within a 90 pip range…rather similar Dec 14.  It would appear we have a similar set up.  Thursday will tell us if this is the case.  This pair is still exhibiting weakness, and probabilities lie on the downside.

1.4500 is current support, although the actual support range is 1.4500-1.4485.  A move below this has a target of 1.4460, 1.4430 and 1.4400.

1.4590 is resistance but resistance also lies between 1.4600-1.4615.  Further rises are likely to encounter resistance at 1.4640, 1.4660 and 1.4680.  1.4680 is the the main one to watch for (and would require a big move to get there today).  Until that level is taken out, this market remains in correction.  If the level is taken out, it provides a case for at least a short term reversal higher if the level can be sustained.

Cory Mitchell, CMT

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