The pair has converged into a triangle like pattern after  strong moves last Friday.  In the triangle I have not actually included the extremes of that day in the triangle, although they do actually connect quite nicely.  These extremes have been left out as they were due to a news event which will not repeat in the next couple days.  Therefore, we will use the swings after that to draw the triangle and extract a profit target.

A break through the bottom trend line (confirmed by a drop below horizontal line) will create a profit target at 1.4210.  This target will increase very slightly over time.

A push above the upper trend line gives early warning of a rise with a target of 1.4400 (currently).  This will decrease slightly over time.

Update: Mini Lesson – I just happened to look at my charts and notice the pair nudged below the trend line and then pulled back into it.  The most consistent signals will come from trading the pair while the European or US sessions are active.  Trades can be entered when Tokyo and Syndey are open as they do affect the market obviously, but I will often wait till the European sessions begin (for this pair).  A breakout means nothing if there is no volume behind it, so trade pairs when they have volume unless your strategy is specifically designed for trading at “thin” times.

Want to learn more about chart patterns?  Or find out more about what I spoke about above?  Check out my eBook available here: http://vantagepointtrading.com/trading-courses along with other trading courses.

Source: Forexyard, EUR/USD 30 Min Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
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They also now offer Automated Trading!

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It has been a while since I posted on this pair, and it is a great one to trade as it generally has a large daily range.  Anyway, I noticed something glancing at the chart and thought I would post it.  The key thing  below is the “old trend” line.  If you draw a trend line, and the price breaks through it, keep it on your chart.  In the future the pair will often stop exactly near the trend line.

Check out the chart.  All the way up this trend line was respected when price fell and then bounced.  Then prices broke through the bottom of the trend line.  And when the pair bounced the trend line stopped the upward movement (circled) and pair moved back lower.  But here is the analysis and chart….

EUR/JPY – Aug 19

Yesterday the pair tested and respected an old upward sloping trend line (broken last week), quickly retreating.  In early trading today it has taken another run at the trend line and the highs for yesterday but has so far failed.  This makes a further slide probable.

Initial support is at 133.40 and 133.10.  A break below this level indicates a move for 132.50.  Further support is at 132.00.

A rise above 135 is less likely, but will initially target 135.50.  Target and resistance beyond is at 136.00.
~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

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Source: Forexyard, EUR/JPY - 2 Hour

They also now offer Automated Trading!

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The EUR/USD pair has been in a tightening range after a very strong move a couple weeks ago.  This has formed a triangle formation and points to breakout either higher or lower of roughly 400 pips from the breakout point.  With the overall trend still up, the bias is for a break to the upside, yet the lower support line of the triangle will need to hold.  Otherwise a move down is expected.  On the downside (and upside) there are major support levels (resistance levels) which need to watched after the breakout occurs – these include recent swing low (and high) areas.

Source: Forexyard - EUR/USD - 4 Hour

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

Today I am going to briefly go over a few things to notice in the markets.  For those of you who actively trade you will have noticed certain pairs have died – meaning volatility and movement has decreased.  Other pairs have been extremely active and have developed strong trends.

Certain strategies work during certain types of market conditions and therefore it is important to know which environment we are trading in.  This seems obvious, but many traders fail to realize when conditions are not ripe for a certain strategy.

So let’s look at what some pairs are doing (or not doing) right now and then hopefully that will help pick better pairs to traded based on what strategies you use.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD are quite tightly wound at the moment.  Until a major breakout occurs on the daily chart these pairs should not be traded for large moves (relatively speaking).  Rather quick trades within the range (the ranges which started around mid-July) are the best bet.  Looking for reversals within the range using candle sticks is effective.

EUR/GBP and USD/CHF are also moving in a choppy fashion at the moment, although this is not too uncommon for these pairs.  Other than the major movements seen basically in all markets world-wide toward the end of last year, these pairs often move in what I would call a choppy fashion.  These pairs right now are good for similar trades as mentioned above.  Day charts will give many false signals, so use shorter time frames for entries and exits and trade within the ranges established on the daily charts.

USD/CAD and AUD/USD have been moving extremely well, both in strong trends as the dollar has experienced massive declines against these pairs.  Both these pairs are currently at levels which will help determine if the trend is likely to reverse or continue.  Both are approaching former swing lows and highs respectively which if punched through will mean a continuation of the trend.  Large moves still have the possibility of being captured as these pairs continue to trend – whether they continue to reverse (this is a topic for another post).

The examples given are used to show that while we may like to trade a certain pair and a certain strategy, it may not work all the time.  And what worked at one point may not work right now, but it may work again in the future.  We can minimize losses by not trading a certain pair when conditions are not right.  We can trade a pair that is more suited to our strategy, or we can do nothing.  Some of the greatest traders in history were the best not because they made the best trades, but because they knew when not trade and therefore not waste money.  That said there are plenty to opportunities if we match up the right strategies with the proper conditions (different pairs).

To Your Trading Success,

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

————————-
Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

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Here is a longer term view of the EUR and USD relationship.  Adam provides his analysis in this video of where the pair is likely to go.

What I like about this video is he demonstrates a simple way to calculate profit targets.  The method he describes I use myself in conjunction with other profit target establishment methods.  It is simple to use and can be very effective in “predicting” what kind of moves are probable in a forex currency pair.

Battle of the EUR vs USD…who’s the winner?

These guys provide a great service and if you stick around right till the end of the video you will be able to take a 30 day risk free trial.  BUT, as always these videos posted here are entirely free and you don’t even need to register unless you want to try to out many of the great products Ino has to offer.

Best wishes in your trading, and if you want to learn more about forex (as well as other markets) trading on your own, be sure to check out the Trading Courses page on this site for access to some great programs and trading strategies.

WANT MORE?  How about 4 free online seminars:   http://www.ino.com/info/36/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=9 Be Sure to check that one out!

Cheer,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

There are a few analysts I really respect and one of them is Adam over at Ino (Market Club).

Here is a great video on the EUR/USD pair.  It is a longer term view of the pair, but is very valuable and informative for traders on all time frames.

What I love about these videos is it shows you right on the charts (in the video) how Adam is analyzing the market.  So not only do you get some insight into the market, but you also get a great little technical analysis tutorial.

http://www.ino.com/info/395/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

To your trading success,

Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist

The eur/usd currency pair scorched higher today, moving almost double its 12 day average (daily) range.

Breaking above daily support at 1.4000 it appears a new swing up is developing.  The next resistance level is at 1.4170 with a push beyond likely to test the recent highs at 1.4330.  Moves beyond indicates profit targets of 1.4590 and a further target of 1.4800 (rounded down).

The pair is a medium term uptrend which has accelerated higher.  This is common for tradables in this stage of a market trend.

Want to learn more about chart patterns or other forex and stock market trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

Source: Forexyard, EUR/USD Daily Chart

To Your Trading Success,

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

The pair just broke minor and a major support

Source: Forexyard EUR/USD 15 Min Chart

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

June 18, 5:44 AM GMT

Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions. If you still have questions after, feel free to comment

With a short term uptrend in place we have a favorable set up for a buy.  A push above 1.3980 would indicate a profit target of 1.4040.

Another trade is buying near the bottom of the current range and using the same profit target.

The short term uptrend remains in tact as long as 1.3860 is not broken.  This trend will rise over time though.

The pair currently trades at 1.3937.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Chief Market Strategist
Remember, failed breakouts are tradeable too!

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Want to learn more about chart patterns or other trading methods?  Check out my Trading Courses page.

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Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.

If you read my earlier post about the potential trade today in the pair (http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/1742) you will see the trade never materialized.  In the comments to that post I wrote why the trade didn’t materialize.

That the trade didn’t happen is fine, but the drop below the 1.3800 was a bit more unexpected and deserves a closer look.  A sustained move below 1.3800 points to a longer term topping pattern having completed.  The pattern is large and provides a profit target of 1.3300.

A daily close below 1.3800 would be ideal.  A break below 1.3750 would also confirm the further move lower as this level is where a  trend line sits.  A push higher off the trend line and back above 1.3800 puts us in no mans land and we will need to wait to see confirmation of a move back upwards.  This pattern often sees a pullback after a breakout so a pause and move up is not unexpected before further declines.

Please read the latest How to Use the Trade Ideas blog if you have questions. If you still have questions after, feel free to comment

Source: Forexyard, EUR/USD 4 Hour Chart

Want to learn more about chart patterns? See this.

~Cory Mitchell, CMT
Market Strategist
Remember, False Breakouts are Tradable Too!

Are you interested in getting into trading? Or if you are already trading and dissatisfied with your broker, check out mine at Forexyard. Switch to Forexyard, open a Standard account and receive up to a $1,000 bonus.

Open a SuperMini or Standard account now and receive a 100% cashback worth up to $300.
Open a Standard account and trade commodities, receive 10% cashback worth up to $1,000.

I am here to personally help you out if you open an account, and need help with strategies or figuring out the trading platform.