The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 18, 2010.

The pair finally did break above 1.3800 Wednesday, did a quick stop clear to just below 1.3820 and then retreated, currently trading at 1.3735.

As I pointed out yesterday the break of 1.3800 was almost inevitable, and the bias remains to the upside.  Targets are: 1.3840, 1.3920 and 1.3940-1.3960.

The breakout didn’t have much conviction, but the pair continues to make higher highs, albeit in a choppy fashion.  Now we need to see if it can put in another higher swing low.  As long as the pair remains 1.3640 the bias remains to upside.  A drop below this support level indicates a move test further support at 1.3620, 1.3540 and range lows if 1.3520 is penetrated.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your EUR/USD outlook for March 17.

Even on a Fed day the pair could not get above 1.3800 on Tuesday.  That said, it does appear that it will happen.  Since early march the EUR/USD has continually put in higher and higher swing lows.  1.3800 does need to be moved through, but barring a drop below 1.3640, it is highly likely to occur.  Such a move through this important resistance level indicates a move higher, with targets at  1.3840, 1.3920 and 1.3940-1.3960.

A drop below 1.3640 indicates downward pressure and a move back lower to test support at 1.3530 and if that is broken a re-test of range lows at 1.3430.

Over the past 2 years, average true range (12) has bottomed out around 100 pips average movement per day.  Currently we are close to this level and thus volatility is likely to increase.  A breakout higher is a likely catalyst for this.  No breakout, and thus continued price action within the established range, means volatility will likely remain near current levels on average.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 16.

Like a child who refuses to clean his room, the EUR/USD also refuses to move with conviction.  Yesterday I posted that a pullback into the 1.3700 region was expected but movements much lower indicate a further move down may ensue. So far the pair has pullback as far as 1.3640.  Additional support comes in at 1.3620.

In recent price action we do have higher highs and higher lows indicating the start of uptrend.  For this (short-term uptrend) to continue the pair will need to stay above 1.3550.  A drop below that indicates a bull trap and a re-test of range lows at 1.3430.  The “saucer” like formation starting from early February makes that scenario less likely than a move higher.

Ultimately 1.3800 remains the level to watch (on the upside) as stated yesterday.  Even though some swing highs were broken on Friday resistance remains at 1.3800 and just below 1.3850.    Prior to this minor resistance is now likely at 1.3730-1.3740.

The pair trades at 1.3675 at the time of this writing.

Fed day today. Be prepared as this could be the catalyst of a trend.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Adam Hewison takes a 2 minute look at the gold market in this video and gives you a level to watch for.  The video was recorded on Sunday but is still very relevant as it is the weekly chart which is analyzed.  In the video Adam mentions “engulfing” patterns.  Of the candlestick patterns, this is one of my favorite especially when seen in certain cycles or at support and resistance.

If you are invested in gold, trading gold or considering what to do with gold then be sure to check out this very quick free gold analysis video.

http://www.ino.com/info/536/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 15, 2010.

The downward daily trendline was broken on Friday, setting up for a further move higher in the EUR.  Short-term caution is still warranted due to the high likelihood of false breakouts.    That said, the “saucer” like formation on the daily charts makes a re-test of the lows recently put in a low probability in the near term.  A move above 1.3800 is what needs to be seen next.  With a high number of shorts in the EUR a short squeeze could ensue if the major resistance levels at at 1.3800 and 1.3840 are taken out.

An upside a target is at 1.3870 as well at 1.3890-1.3910.  Beyond this we are looking at a longer term target of 1.4030.

Pullbacks may occur into the 1.3730-1.3700 region.  Additional support comes in at 1.3680 and 1.3620.  A drop back below 1.3680 would indicate the break higher was false and the pair will move lower once again or continue to stay in a more range-bound environment.  A further drop, where that situation to develop, would likely find support at 1.3540, with a drop below 1.3520 indicating a retest of range lows at 1.3430.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The S&P closed out a strong week, closing just below 1150.  Highs (January) are just above 1150 so the stock market sits on the verge of a breakout to the upside.  In late February and early march we got confirmation that the sell off down to 1045 was a “bear trap” and the daily uptrend has remained intact since those lows were put in on Feb 5.

If that breakout occurs the overall target is 1194-1200.  That said, the weekly average movement of the S&P is just under 31 points so it will take some some time to reach that target.  Short-term targets are 1162 followed by 1174.

The blue lines on the chart mark expected support levels on pullbacks.  At the moment they correspond with support at 1126 and 1116-1113 – these levels are fixed while the blue lines are sloping so their support values change over time.

At this point a re-test of recent lows near 1044 is highly unlikely.  A close above 1151 would indicate a strong likelihood of another wave higher.  The advance has been sharp and I do expect a pullback to the trendline but overall the outlook is bullish based on the price movement.

I continue to dislike the fundamental picture especially with some of the proposed programs coming out of Washington.  But I will keep this technical and will address my “fundamental” issues in my weekend Newsletter (sign up on the right – it’s free!).

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S&P 500 Daily - FreeStockCharts

Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is the weekend recap and looks at a longer term analysis of the EUR/USD than what is covered in the analysis I post each day in the Daily Outlook.

The pair made a definite effort to break to the upside.  Shorts in the EUR are very high and a “short squeeze” could occur if the pair manages to get above 1.3800.   In addition to this, the daily downward trend was penetrated on Friday, but closed just below it.

Targets are now in sight on the upside at 1.4030 and 1.4170.  A short-term upward trendline is now in place as can be seen on the chart (below).  A break above 1.3800 as well as the daily downward trend line makes a re-test of the lows near 1.3440 a low probability possibility in the near term.

The pair closed at 1.3767 (or close to it) and the weekly average movement is about 300 pips.  This put our first target within reach, but the second target is beyond what the typical movement would indicate for this week.

On the downside, old resistance will is now likely to act as support at 1.3700.  Occasionally I mention a “confirmed breakout”.  In this case a confirmed breakout is when the pair pulls back after a breakout (as it has done) and respects a primary support level (1.3700 in this case) and then pushes higher again.  If you think in terms of a trend, this set-up creates the initial stages of a trend – higher highs and higher lows.  We do not always get “confirmation” though as sometimes the market does not pullback to near the breakout point.

Further support comes in at 1.3600 which is our short-term daily upward trendline and also at 1.3540.  Beyond this key support is at 1.3440 or the range lows.

Also of note is the “bowl” formation we can now see from the daily price action between early February and now.  This also indicates an upward bias.

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EUR/USD Daily - FreeStockCharts

Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD analysis heading into March 12.

The pair barely had a pulse Thursday, covering a range of only 70 pips at the time of this writing.

I feel like a bit of a broken record saying the same thing every day, but I continue to be of the view that waiting for a trend is superior to trading within the range where support and resistance hold little significance.  That said there are a several points to watch…

Currently we are near the upper end of the range, 1.3700 and 1.3740 are likely resistance levels.  Beyond this resistance comes in at 1.3800 and 1.3840.  Breaking above 1.3800 indicates a further move higher as the downward daily trend would be broken.  Given that false breakouts are highly probable, a resumed breakout direction move after a pullback is my preferred method of entry (ie. breakout, pullback, move back in breakout direction, entry).

Minor support comes in at 1.3620 followed by 1.3540 and 1.3440 – this is a pivotal level and very likely beyond the reach of Friday’s daily range, but a move below indicates another leg in the downtrend.

—–

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The following is your daily outlook for the EUR/USD -March 11

A push higher on Wednesday still kept the pair lower than the previous swing high, thus tightening the short-term triangle formation.  The high Wednesday is within a couple pips of the downward trendline (hourly) which connected the last two swings highs.

Ultimately the pair remains between the major pivotal levels of 1.3740 and 1.3430.  I have pointed this out many times, but support and resistance within this range are not crucial, and since the EUR/USD is a trending currency trading with the range is not an ideal strategy.

That said, there are of course opportunities for short-term traders.   The minor trendline resistance mentioned above comes in at 1.3670 with horizontal resistance at 1.3680.  1.3700 ad 1.3740 are more significant resistance beyond.  Movement above 1.3740 indicates an further upward correction.

Overall trend still remains down on the longer term charts, and the pair works through a sideways correction.    Support is likely in the short-term through 1.3630-1.3615 followed by 1.3540-1.3530.  A break beyond this is likely to challenge the lower portions of the range, namely 1.3500-1.3490 and 1.3430.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

This was actually posted by Adam yesterday, so I am a little late in getting it to you, but it is still a valuable look at the current state of Gold.

Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub’s daily “Trade Triangle” technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.

The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.

In today’s video, I share with you some thoughts I have on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.

http://www.ino.com/info/533/CD3784/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub