The following is your daily outlook for the EUR/USD -March 11

A push higher on Wednesday still kept the pair lower than the previous swing high, thus tightening the short-term triangle formation.  The high Wednesday is within a couple pips of the downward trendline (hourly) which connected the last two swings highs.

Ultimately the pair remains between the major pivotal levels of 1.3740 and 1.3430.  I have pointed this out many times, but support and resistance within this range are not crucial, and since the EUR/USD is a trending currency trading with the range is not an ideal strategy.

That said, there are of course opportunities for short-term traders.   The minor trendline resistance mentioned above comes in at 1.3670 with horizontal resistance at 1.3680.  1.3700 ad 1.3740 are more significant resistance beyond.  Movement above 1.3740 indicates an further upward correction.

Overall trend still remains down on the longer term charts, and the pair works through a sideways correction.    Support is likely in the short-term through 1.3630-1.3615 followed by 1.3540-1.3530.  A break beyond this is likely to challenge the lower portions of the range, namely 1.3500-1.3490 and 1.3430.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Here is your daily outlook for the EUR/USD – March 9, 2010.

The pair continues to move in a sideways fashion.  On the hourly chart we have converging short-term trendlines forming a triangle .  Given that the triangle has formed within a well-established range does not indicate a breakout.  Although, a move above 1.3715 would be our first indication of the possibility, yet would need to pass the resistance levels mentioned below to be a breakout.

The trend remains down, although the EUR/USD is in a correction (albeit sideways).  Downward trendline intersects between 1.3750-1.3800.  Significant horizontal resistance comes in around this 1.38 level as well.

In the short-term, resistance comes in at 1.3700 and 1.3740.  Beyond this there is a resistance area between 1.3790-1.3840.  A break beyond this would indicate a reversal and a move higher.

Minor support has developed at 1.3600 and beyond this at 1.3550-1.3530.  Major swing lows and support levels come in at 1.3450-1.3430.  A break below this indicates another leg down in the downtrend.

Despite the fact this range has sustained itself for some time now, range trading the EUR/USD is generally not a high probability trade due to its high propensity to trend.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your weekly stock market outlook for March 8-12.  We will look at the S&P 500.

In last weeks analysis 1104 was the pivot point.  Holding above that was important in painting a picture in which the market could go higher.  At no point this past week was that point tested, and the result was a reaching (and exceeding) of the 1130 profit target.

The current upward trend which began back on Feb 5 is quite steep and a pullback is likely, yet with the relative close proximity to 52 week highs 1150 will likely be tested by the market.

Support now comes in at 1126-1124 followed by 1116-1112.  1105-1104 still has some relevance, but no longer a major level.  A drop below it though indicates weakness and a likely probe below 1100.  Support comes in further down at 1086 – but this is outside the average range for the market.

Average weekly range about 32 points.   The S&P closed out the week at 1138.70 and saw buying right into the close.

Little resistance hangs overhead, and a test of 1147-1151 is likely.  A move above this band indicates another wave higher and with clear skies minor resistance comes in at 1166 and 1180.  Multiple profit target approaches set out a target between 1180-1184 for the break.  This would be well beyond the average weekly range, so the 1166 target can be used for this week if we do see the market above 1150.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 5, 2010.

The EUR pulled back today, and currently trades near the middle of the former range.  As mentioned in yesterday’s post on confirmation of the breakout, the pair needs to climb above the resistance now at 1.3740-1.3750 and then ultimately break the trendline at 1.3800 in order to confirm a larger correction.

At the moment, the pair remains choppy.  Longer term trend remains down, while we have higher lows and higher highs over the last few days.

I do not give much significance to support and resistance within this range.  Although some support has developed just above 1.3540, and is likely at 1.3520, 1.3490 and key support at 1.3440-1.3430.

Upside resistance, not significant, but likely at 1.3620-1.3640, 1.3700 and then the resistance level to add evidence to a further move higher – 1.3740

Non-Farm Payrolls out tomorrow could be the catalyst in moving this pair back into a trend, and will at minimum expand volatility.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

If you have been following my analysis lately, you know there were some mixed signals in the market.  Adam lays out his thoughts in this new video, and poses a very credible case that maybe the Euro has gone to far.  Looking for some straight forward analysis?  It was recorded yesterday, but after today’s move is very relevant.

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Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 4.

The EUR/USD broke above resistance at 1.3700.  That pushed the pair up to interim resistance at 1.3740 (to 1.3750) on the way to the 1.3800 target as mentioned yesterday.

The pullback to the breakout point has occurred, moving back to 1.3688  and currently trades as 1.3707.  A push back above 1.3750 would confirm the breakout.  Trendline resistance intersects at 1.3800 which is the current target if resistance can be penetrated.  Resistance beyond the target is 1.3835.  Penetration of that point would put the pair in at least a short-term correction higher, making a retest of recent lows very unlikely over the next couple weeks.

Support has developed between1.3690, and can extend down to 1.3670.  A drop below that level hints at a bull trap and a retest of support between 1.3610-1.3590.   Below this, again, support and resistance lose their importance.  That said, some support is likely at 1.3520, 1.3490 and key support at 1.3440-1.3430.

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Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

This is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 3.

On Tuesday the pair ever so briefly dipped below 1.3440.  The sharp rebound showed that traders had little conviction in taking the EUR lower at that point.  The false breakout allowed the range to stay in tact as the pair currently heads towards recent swing highs.

At this writing the pair trades at 1.3620.  1.3660 is resistance within the range followed by 1.3680 and 1.3700.

As mentioned in prior posts, trend traders should avoid the pair until a confirmed breakout occurs.  Day traders will likely enjoy the large price swings within the range.  That said, the EUR/USD is not an ideal currency for range trading over the longer term (info on that here: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/10/range-trade-without-usd.asp).

1.3700 is significant resistance on the upside.   As stated yesterday “Overall the pair remains in a downtrend. This will not be challenged until the pair gets over current resistance at 1.3700 followed by further resistance at 1.3800.  The trendline approximately intersects this level.   False breakout are a high probability.  A break above 1.3700 accompanied by a pullback and then a renewed push higher would provide further confirmation of a continued upward correction.  Interim resistance comes in at 1.3740-50 and 1.3780.”

Significant support on the downside remains between 1.3460-1.3430.   Levels between this and 1.3700 are not high probability support/resistance levels.  A break below indicates another leg down.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your daily EUR/USD analysis for March 2.

The EUR/USD continues to float between important levels, but will not move beyond in either direction.  We have a short-term range, but longer term the EUR/USD is not a range trading currency pair.

Overall the pair remains in a downtrend. This will not be challenged until the pair gets over current resistance at 1.3700 followed by further resistance at 1.3800.  The trendline approximately intersects this level.   False breakout are a high probability.  A break above 1.3700 accompanied by a pullback and then a renewed push higher would provide further confirmation of a continued upward correction.  Interim resistance comes in at 1.3740-50 and 1.3780.

Significant support on the downside remains between 1.3460-1.3440.  Levels between this and 1.3700 are not high probability support/resistance levels.

The swing highs are moving lower, but so far the swing lows have not moved lower since Feb 19.  A move above a swing high (1.3700) points to a further move higher.  After not making new swing highs a move lower below the swing low (1.3440) would indicate another leg down.

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~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

This is the daily outlook for the EUR/USD on March 1, 2010.

Initial trading this week as pushed the Euro higher, congruent with a short-term uptrend since the the pair could not break the pivotal lows at 1.3440 on Feb 24 and 25.

As mentioned in the weekly analysis of the pair, signals are mixed.  Failure to break the lows show signs of a potential bottom at least for a short-term reversal.  For that to be confirmed we need a break above a recent swing high – the main one in sight is 1.3700.

Even so, given the action as of late, false breakout are a high probability.  A break above 1.3700 accompanied by a pullback and then a renewed push higher would provide further confirmation of a continued upward correction.

The trend remains down, and currently the daily trend line intersects with swing highs at 1.3800.  Thus a push above 1.3700 could challenge this level on the correction higher.  Interim resistance comes in at 1.3740-50 and 1.3780.

Levels between 1.3440 and 1.3700 are not particularly significant although 1.3550 should provide support on moves lower followed by 1.3510.  Failure to hold is likely to retest the swing lows.  A break below 1.3440 indicates another leg down in the downtrend.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is the outlook for the S&P 500 heading into next week, March 1-5.

The way the market is right now is what I talk about in this weeks newsletter (sign up along the right hand side…it’s free).  Movements have been somewhat erratic, unless a trader is very skilled they can easily get whipsawed in this market.  We had the decline in late January and early February, now we have rallied back and sit basically in the center of that former decline.  What is interesting and what makes the short-term outlook uncertain is that we have exceed the 1104 – 1105 brief rally high on February2 .  Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday last week we moved through that point everyday.  Thursday had its own interesting action needless to say.

So we sit at a  point where short-term probabilities are about equal for moving up or down.  Luckily there is no need to predict anything to make money.  Rather we let the market lead by only stepping in in force when the market has given us reason to believe there is a higher probability it will move a certain direction.

1115 is resistance on the upside.  A break above indicates strength and with little resistance until 1130-1132 our target is 1130.  A drop back below 1115 before a target is hit shows some indecision and that the choppy trading is likely to continue.  Beyond 1132 resistance is at 1150.

The weekly average range for the S&P stands at about 31 points.  The range that is covered this week will fall short or be greater than this average number, but it does give us an indication of what kind of levels are likely to be within (or outside) target range in the upcoming week.

Thursday’s low at 1086 is a level to watch, a drop below that bearish and will likely reach support at 1080.  Below 1080 we have a collection of days which ranged between 1080-1060 so this is another areas which could get choppy unless we have a swift move through it. Further support comes in at 1056 and 1045.

Since Feb. 5 we have a short-term uptrend.

S&P 500 Daily, FreeStockCharts

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.