Here is an uber quick look at what developed in the markets this week and what to look for next week, namely the EUR/USD and S&P 500.

The EUR/USD suffered a major setback Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  It just could not stay above the 1.3800 level and fell off aggressively back into the former range.  This makes a retest of range lows a reasonable assumption.    The short-term upward trendline was broken, and ultimately the daily downtrend was left in tact other than a slight penetration.  A break below lows at 1.3430 would set up another leg down in the downtrend.  A target for the break downwards is 1.3060.  False breakouts remain a high probability, as has been stated in the daily analysis for quite some time, and as was just witnessed with the small push above 1.3800 and subsequent retreat.

On average (14) the EUR/USD is moving 302 pips in a week.

EUR/USD Daily

Other than Friday, the stock market had a good week continuing to push above the 1150 mark and closing out the week at 1159.90.  Support now comes in at 1150, along with initial trendline support at 1140 and further support at 1125.  A drop back into this area would warrant concern and signal a false breakout.  Blue lines on the chart mark potential trendline support if the initial trendline line is broken.

Target on the upside is just below 1200 and if that is broken then 1250.  The average weekly movement for the S&P is just under 31 points.  Keep this in mind, as it will likely take a week or long to reach this initial upside target, and several weeks to hit the second target if this market continues higher.

SP-500 Daily

Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

By the way, this weeks newsletter, which will be sent out tonight/tomorrow morning, has some great stuff in it – filled with trade ideas and set-ups in SLV (silver), GLD (gold), AUD/CAD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY and what stock sectors to look at.  Plus it takes a look at the strategies and tools I use as well as some warnings about what the main stream idea is pushing.  Sign up on the right hand side if you haven’t already….you don’t want to miss this one!  It’s Free!

This is a rough transcript of a radio show I did… probably about a year ago now… with Craig Weil, the Director of Trading with the Online Trading Academy in Chicago.  The radio program was Traders Talk Live and aired at 9 AM on Saturdays on AM560 WIND.  I did have a recording but can’t seem to find it, but the transcript is probably just as good.

It was an interview based on the article I had published in Stock & Commodities magazine several weeks prior entitled “The Trading Plan.” [Just as a side note, you can check out my article in the April issue of that magazine where I discuss a rather obscure way to use the RSI indicator to verify trends.]

Enjoy, I think you will there is a lot of information packed into this, and regardless of whether you are an experienced trader or a new comer the following is a good reminder or a great introduction to trading.

Interview on Traders Talk Live with Cory Mitchell

When people ask me what the number one thing that all successful traders and investors have in common…it doesn’t take me long to come up with an answer.  Now… you have heard me say hundreds of times that there are many ways to skin this cat… as there are literally thousands of methodologies and strategies are employed every day by successful traders. There are strategies for all asset classes… for all time frames and for all kinds of markets….up…down or sideways.  Now some of you may say…its technical analysis…but of course…the fundamentalists would scoff at that notion. Some of you might say…patience or discipline…and that would be true to a degree.  No one is going to succeed without it…that’s true…But…but you can display great patience and discipline…and still not make money.

You may have even discovered…the greatest investing strategy since Warren Buffett was in diapers…… and back tested it thousands of times to eye popping results…but unless you can implement that strategy properly…and have a plan for it…you will fail.

And just as No business will get funding or succeed without a business plan… no trader or investor will consistently make money in the markets…without a trading plan.

Joining us now for a discussion on trading plans is someone who knows a lot about the topic…Cory Mitchell is an independent Trader and founder of Vantagepointtrading.com…a free educational website devoted to helping traders learn about …and succeed in the markets.

Cory has written numerous articles for several publications including Investopedia and Technical Analysis for Stocks and Commodities Magazine… and it was his featured article in their March issue that compelled me to invite him to the show today.  The title of Cory’s article is simply “The Trading Plan” and in it…Cory has artfully articulated why I think this is an extremely important topic…so I am thrilled he could join us today…Cory…welcome to Traders Talk Live!

How are you…..blah blah blah

Cory…  before we get into our topic today…let’s get a little background on you and your trading experience…

1.  Where did it all start for you? How did you get hooked on Trading?

Well, I have been trading for about 6 years full time…and what probably hooked me was when a professor I had in university introduced me to technical analysis.  The idea of looking at charts and visually trading based on actual price levels appealed to me much more than dealing with a lot of numbers.  I went on to work for 2 proprietary trading firms in Canada… trading stocks… and then a year ago switched to the Forex Market as it is open 24 hours and allowed me more freedom to trade at night which is when I prefer to trade [UPDATED: I still trade forex independently, but also own a small proprietary trading firm specializing in short-term equity strategies].  I am also a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts and an affiliate of the Market Technicians association and definitely love the technical side of trading.

OK Cory…there are many components to a successful trading plan and we don’t have much time… so we had better get going.

Now…as I alluded to in your introduction…I feel  having a plan may be the single most  important ingredient  for success…so much so…that at online Trading academy….we actually have a one day class…dedicated to it.

Now…a trading plan is not just reading some books and opening an account…and sometimes…the new trader succeeds at first without a plan… and thus don’t think they need one…

Ex floor traders are especially guilty of this…when learning to trade electronically…

2.  But we shouldn’t fool ourselves right?   You call it random reinforcement… What is that?

Random reinforcement it prevalent in many things…including life in general…it means that we can do something wrong, and be randomly rewarded for it simply because the market is so dynamic.  This misleads people into believing they can beat the market without a plan simply because they win on a trade every so often – -but it is a short term phenomenon.  This random element reinforces bad habits because it gives an occasion profit while emptying out the trading account over the longer term.  It baits a lot of people into losing a lot of money who don’t take the time to really think through their plan.

3.  So where should someone start?  Do we need a methodology first…or does the plan come first? The chicken or the egg?  We really have to have some idea of what kind of trader we want to be…right?

Yeah.  We do not need some idea of what kind of trader we want to be.  It is likely best to start out by balancing our personality and desire to trade in a certain way …with our current circumstance.  By this I mean…it is very hard to be an active day trader… if the person also has a full time job.  So we need to be realistic about what and when we will trade.  From there…we can begin to develop strategies that cater to our lifestyle, personality and the particular market we have chosen to trade.

Cory…You have broken the trading  plan down into 3 parts…Money Management….Entry rules and Exit Rules….so let’s address each of these specifically…and how our plan will not work without mastering them all.

First off… you call it Money Management…I call it risk management

It seems obvious that we should be concerned about this… but so many traders overlook it.  First… we have to determine what our maximum loss will be on each trade…but  every trader has different risk tolerances and equity ..

In fact our primary goal shouldn’t be to make money….our  primary goal should be capital preservation…our secondary goal should be to make money.

4.  what is a good rule of thumb for someone…as far as what to risk on a trade?

Many traders think of a dollar amount first when considering risk. And I think that can be dangerous.  It is better to gauge risk as the percentage of the entire trading account which is being risked on each trade.  The amount that is risked on any given trade should be 1-3% of the trading account.  From my experience, traders that last it seems lean toward risking a very small percentage of total capital on each trade…therefore, we should risk only about 1 % of our capital on a trade.

Although, as our accounts grow we will find that we risk less and less percentage wise.  A $500,000 account trader does not risk $5000 on every trade…no way…the risk may be only a couple hundred.  So when this occurs, and percentages are no longer useful, a trader will normally use a dollar risk, such as $300, $500/trade or whatever the case may be.

And …speaking of Rules….Rules are really what this is all about right Cory?

5.  Can we have a plan without written rules?

If we can’t articulate our plan if we have none

The rules should to be written down.  If they are not written down we have no idea what has made money and what hasn’t, because we can’t remember what exactly we did on each trade over the last month or year – and chances are if someone doesn’t take the time to make a plan, they aren’t going to take the time to write down each trade in detail either…but if we have a plan we will know what is working and what isn’t…and we can fix it by altering the trading plan.

6.  And our rules have rules… Don’t we need a contingency plan for every situation?

Yeah…We need to know how we, personally, are going to respond to a situation.  The market can go crazy and we don’t need predict every movement, but if we have a well laid out plan we will know how to handle our current trades based on current conditions.  So yes, our trading plan takes all the guessing out of what to do while in a trade – it lays out our course of action no matter what occurs.

Lets talk about entries and exits…your other two keys.  Now… most people concentrate on entries and don’t really consider exits right? But that is where our profits or losses lay.  Anyone can get into a trade…but it is getting out that is really going to carry the day.

7.  In your opinion…what are the most important rules or steps we should have for exits?

The first thing is we should always have a stop in place.  This stop is what limits our risk to a very small percentage of our total account mentioned earlier…the 1-3%…or less…or our set dollar risk per trade…mentioned earlier.

We can also exit a trade with profit targets.  Profit targets based on logical technical analysis allow the trader to see exactly what they can expect in return for the amount of risk they are taking on.  If a trade does not appear like the rewards will outweigh the risk…the trade should be avoided.

I generally use multiple profit targets and exit part of our position at each different target.  Using stops and profit targets lets me know exactly what my risk to reward ratio is before the trade even takes place….and  I will talk a bit more about this when we talk about position sizing.

OK   Let’s talk about position sizing is and why this is so important. I think this is a difficult concept for a new trader to get.  Most people think that they should have a default quantity on every trade but that is dangerous…especially if you trade different equities every day.

People think they can make up a stop…”I only will risk 10c or 50c or whatever… But not all trades are the same.  A stop should be based on some data or criteria like time right? And once you determine a proper stop…that will dictate your positions size.

8.    Can you give us an example of proper positions sizing works and what kind of exits you use in your trading?

Sure, First let’s assume we have a $10,000 trading account…I will try to keep the numbers simple….  Risking 1% of 10,000 on this trade means we can risk $100.  And let’s say we want to buy a stock at certain price – we look and see at what price this trade would be proven wrong.  Let’s say there is a support level 30 cents below our entry, and this is where we place our stop.  Since we know our stop is 30 cents, we divide the $100…the total we can risk on the account… by our 30 cent risk on the trade to give us our position size.  In this case we can buy 333 shares, or 300 when rounded down.  We now have a logical stop in place and an ideal position size…

From there we need to look at our charts and determine a proper profit target.  For me to actually take this trade there would be to some chart formation or something logical and tangible (not emotional) which would indicate this trade would make me at least 2 to 3 x my risk level.  In other words, I need to reasonably expect that I will make 60 cents or more (preferably 90 or more), for my 30 cent risk.

We can do this by having one target but generally I set multiple profit targets because we can take a quick profit on part of the position but the last portion of the trade can be left to really ride for a bigger profit….of course it does not always work out as planned, and that’s ok, that’s why we try to make more on profitable trades than we lose on the ones that go bad.

Having a trading plan will allow us to review our trades and correct our problems. But many students…especially those that have been trading a while…don’t really care to put in the time to review their mistakes and reinforce their rules.

9.   What do you say to those people who don’t want to take the time to write down their rules and review their mistakes?

It may sound harsh but the financial markets require that there are winners AND losers.  The people who lose over the long run are the ones who don’t put in the time to plan out and review their ventures in the markets.  If you do plan and review, you have a much better chance at success.

Thanks Cory…for joining us on Traders Talk Live today.

——————————————————————————

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The Following is you daily EUR/USD outlook for March 19, 2010.

The EUR/USD is generally a strong trending currency, but for well over a month the pair continues to elude it’s tendency.  Moving in a choppy fashion making higher highs over the past couple weeks, indicating an upward bias, the drop on Thursday back below 1.3640 once again shifts the short-term outlook back to neutral.

Previous posts have included warnings about the high likelihood of false breakouts, and this continues to be a low probability environment for trend traders.  There is a need to avoid the wanting of being the first person into an emerging trend – a legitimate breakout will provide ample profit opportunity.

From Yesterday’s post here are levels to watch within the range:

“A drop below this support level [1.3640] indicates a move test further support at 1.3620, 1.3540 and range lows if 1.3520 is penetrated.”

Targets on the upside are: 1.3840, 1.3920 and 1.3940-1.3960.  Resistance inside 1.3820 comes in at 1.3650 and 1.3750-1.3760.

~~Get 10 Professional Trading Lessons…. Free! :
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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following was a post from Larry Levin of Trading Advantage and looks once again at the Greece issue….which we thought was taken care of….but apparently not.

Cheers (and enjoy)

Greece Again…Really?

Greece is in the news again…really? When will this story just go away? Apparently Greece was NOT bailed out a few days ago as reported in The Guardian from the UK and is still in need of funding its profligate spending habits & future promises. But what is even more amazing than that, the banksters on Fraud Street used this morning new “rumor” of a “new bailout” to pump the market higher again on even lower volume again. This is now beyond ridiculous.

According to ABC news:

Greece could seek IMF funding to help overcome its debt crisis if its EU partners do not provide “clear support” next week, a government spokesman said Wednesday.

George Petalotis said the March 25-26 European Union summit on how to deal with a potential bailout for Greece will be crucial, as the country struggles to reduce a bloated budget deficit and public debt.

“I believe the summit is when it will become evident whether the European partners want to support a country … or whether we have to resort to some other solution,” Petalotis said.

Nope, that does not sound like a “done deal” to me.

In a piece on Bloomberg today we read:

March 17 (Bloomberg) — Harvard University Professor Martin Feldstein, who warned almost two decades ago that the euro would prove an “economic liability,” said Greece’s austerity plan will fail and the country may quit the single currency to fix its fiscal crisis.

“The idea that Greece can go from a 12 percent deficit now to a 3 percent deficit two years from now seems fantasy,” Feldstein, an adviser to U.S. presidents since Ronald Reagan, said in a March 13 interview in Geneva. “The alternatives are to default in some way or to leave, or both.”

Bailout? Professor Feldstein says Greece’s only options are DEFAULT, leaving the EU, or BOTH.

But what would any of this matter to the pump-monkeys on Fraud Street? Today’s so-called Greek rescue package is the 6th? 7th? 17th or 27th? I have lost count. But no matter, another unfounded rumor is just fine with the computerized trading from Goldman Sachs and JPM. There are no shorts left to stop it but there are no buyers other than the computers either: each day is governed by ridiculously low volume and no volatility whatever, which is a sign of no/few new buyers.

The trend is up so you do not want to short this market; however, it is so abnormal that I believe it could (not will) suffer a radical drop if the tensions with China increase over currency manipulation, a-la the 1987 market meltdown and the German Mark.

———————————————–

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The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 18, 2010.

The pair finally did break above 1.3800 Wednesday, did a quick stop clear to just below 1.3820 and then retreated, currently trading at 1.3735.

As I pointed out yesterday the break of 1.3800 was almost inevitable, and the bias remains to the upside.  Targets are: 1.3840, 1.3920 and 1.3940-1.3960.

The breakout didn’t have much conviction, but the pair continues to make higher highs, albeit in a choppy fashion.  Now we need to see if it can put in another higher swing low.  As long as the pair remains 1.3640 the bias remains to upside.  A drop below this support level indicates a move test further support at 1.3620, 1.3540 and range lows if 1.3520 is penetrated.

When it comes to Forex trading, here’s what most traders do…

-they try to trade every “wiggle & waggle” of the market…

In other words, they think they need to trade ALL THE TIME because they think they’re going to “miss out” on a great trade.  This is NONSENSE and a surefire way to drive your trading account down to ZERO.

Successful traders, on the other hand – those who have discovered an “edge” over others – know to look for the SWEET SPOTS in the markets… and only trade those.

Check out this “quick hit” video that reveals exactly what it means to trade the SWEET SPOTS of the Forex markets…

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Happy Trading,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

The following is your EUR/USD outlook for March 17.

Even on a Fed day the pair could not get above 1.3800 on Tuesday.  That said, it does appear that it will happen.  Since early march the EUR/USD has continually put in higher and higher swing lows.  1.3800 does need to be moved through, but barring a drop below 1.3640, it is highly likely to occur.  Such a move through this important resistance level indicates a move higher, with targets at  1.3840, 1.3920 and 1.3940-1.3960.

A drop below 1.3640 indicates downward pressure and a move back lower to test support at 1.3530 and if that is broken a re-test of range lows at 1.3430.

Over the past 2 years, average true range (12) has bottomed out around 100 pips average movement per day.  Currently we are close to this level and thus volatility is likely to increase.  A breakout higher is a likely catalyst for this.  No breakout, and thus continued price action within the established range, means volatility will likely remain near current levels on average.

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In fact, you might continue to lose money hand over fist in the Forex markets until you STOP making these mistakes.

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Happy Trading,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Last week, one of the best “A to Z” Forex training programs totally took the Forex education community by storm…

-It’s called the “Forex Profit Accelerator Group Coaching Program”.

Well, if you’ve checked the website lately, then you know that only 51 more students can get in before the enrollment page shuts down for good on Tuesday, March 16th, at 11:59pm Eastern (New York time).

See the latest inventory count here:

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I was thinking about what specifically it is that I like the best about this course & program & what sets it above most of the other methods and courses I’ve seen.  Here’s what I came up with:

** COMPLETE — This is one of the most complete Forex trading programs I’ve ever seen.  Period.  There’s material to get beginners going quickly, and it’s structured in such a way that more experienced traders can jump right into the “meat” of the methods.

Further, it’s a multimedia & training powerhouse — from the screen capture CD-ROM videos to the full color reference manual to the detailed “trading blueprints” to the 8 group coaching sessions. It’s designed to make sure you really understand all the concepts quickly and effectively.

** CLEAR — Bill’s teaching style is among the best I’ve ever seen. He speaks in a clear, nurturing way that steps you through all the material. It’s very apparent why so many traders keep coming back to Bill’s courses.

** CONSTANT — I think of this as the “surprise” of the course. Bill constantly follows-up with his students after they get his course. He mentions this on his open letter, but I really believe this is the true value of his course. His students
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So that’s what stands out for me about the Forex Profit Accelerator Group Coaching Program. And frankly, I’ll even go
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————
FAIR WARNING
————

I cannot promise that the Forex Profit Accelerator Group Coaching Program enrollment page will be open when you go there – it may already be completely sold out.

If that’s the case, please put your name on the waiting list. Bill has no immediate plans to open up the program in the near future, but after he gets through mentoring his first class, he might do another one (but it could be months before that happens
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If it’s still open, you can get in here:

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Happy Trading,
Cory Mitchell, CMT

p.s. I just checked Bill’s real-time inventory counter before sending this email to you and it now reads 39 copies available. Time is running out. You can check it here:

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The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 16.

Like a child who refuses to clean his room, the EUR/USD also refuses to move with conviction.  Yesterday I posted that a pullback into the 1.3700 region was expected but movements much lower indicate a further move down may ensue. So far the pair has pullback as far as 1.3640.  Additional support comes in at 1.3620.

In recent price action we do have higher highs and higher lows indicating the start of uptrend.  For this (short-term uptrend) to continue the pair will need to stay above 1.3550.  A drop below that indicates a bull trap and a re-test of range lows at 1.3430.  The “saucer” like formation starting from early February makes that scenario less likely than a move higher.

Ultimately 1.3800 remains the level to watch (on the upside) as stated yesterday.  Even though some swing highs were broken on Friday resistance remains at 1.3800 and just below 1.3850.    Prior to this minor resistance is now likely at 1.3730-1.3740.

The pair trades at 1.3675 at the time of this writing.

Fed day today. Be prepared as this could be the catalyst of a trend.

~~Get 10 Professional Trading Lessons…. Free! :
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Cory Mitchell, CMT

~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.

Adam Hewison takes a 2 minute look at the gold market in this video and gives you a level to watch for.  The video was recorded on Sunday but is still very relevant as it is the weekly chart which is analyzed.  In the video Adam mentions “engulfing” patterns.  Of the candlestick patterns, this is one of my favorite especially when seen in certain cycles or at support and resistance.

If you are invested in gold, trading gold or considering what to do with gold then be sure to check out this very quick free gold analysis video.

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Cheers,

Cory Mitchell, CMT

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 15, 2010.

The downward daily trendline was broken on Friday, setting up for a further move higher in the EUR.  Short-term caution is still warranted due to the high likelihood of false breakouts.    That said, the “saucer” like formation on the daily charts makes a re-test of the lows recently put in a low probability in the near term.  A move above 1.3800 is what needs to be seen next.  With a high number of shorts in the EUR a short squeeze could ensue if the major resistance levels at at 1.3800 and 1.3840 are taken out.

An upside a target is at 1.3870 as well at 1.3890-1.3910.  Beyond this we are looking at a longer term target of 1.4030.

Pullbacks may occur into the 1.3730-1.3700 region.  Additional support comes in at 1.3680 and 1.3620.  A drop back below 1.3680 would indicate the break higher was false and the pair will move lower once again or continue to stay in a more range-bound environment.  A further drop, where that situation to develop, would likely find support at 1.3540, with a drop below 1.3520 indicating a retest of range lows at 1.3430.

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Best Wishes,

Cory Mitchell, CMT
~Know your risks when trading. Please read the Legal Disclaimer page.