Forex Updates: AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD

Here are forex updates on the AUDUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD. These forex updates serve to supplement the analysis provided in the “complete forex analyses” usually published every couple weeks.

AUDUSD Update: The most recent complete analysis is here: AUDUSD Analysis: Significant Trade Developments.

The pair recently put in a higher swing low on April 24. This is a good indication based on the longer term analysis which stipulated a long trade, but the pair will still need to get above the April 13 high at 1.0453. If that occurs it means the pair will have made and a higher high and a higher low which provides evidence that the longer-term outlook of an increase in the AUDUSD is underway.

The long-term trend remains higher with the recent correction lower retreating to that long-term trendline. The trade I liked (and there were many opportunities to get in) is in the complete analysis listed above.

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GBPUSD Update: You can see recent GBPUSD analysis and updates here: http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/category/gbpusd-analysis-2.

The pair continues to move higher at the current time but has approached a target I mentioned back on April 11 (italics added):

The pair continues to move in a trend channel higher, and on April 10 found support at trend channel support. The move higher on Wednesday is a bullish signal indicating a retest of  the recent high at 1.6062 and potentially higher. One potential upside target is the upper band of the trend channel, currently intersecting near 1.6250.

Since it has been two weeks since that article was posted the trendline channel is now higher, as it is upward sloping. On Monday the trend channel line will be close to 1.6350. Therefore, 1.6250 to 1.6350 is a likely area for a pullback to occur. I wouldn’t be shorting into the rally though, afterall the trend is up. But if long this is the target area to exit or pull in trailing stops. A pullback then provides a (or another) buying opportunity for the next rally.

I will note that I have used a “conservative” estimate for the 1.6250 to 1.6320 target area. Another target is 1.6425, although I prefer the conservative target area potentially with the use of a trailing stop which may capture a bit more upside if it occurs.

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USDCAD Update: Recent USDCAD Analyses and updates can be found here: http://vantagepointtrading.com/archives/category/usdcad-analysis-2

This pair finally did something which may be significant—-it broke through the low of the range it had been trading in.

Here is an excerpt from the April 5 Analysis:

Support is between 0.9860 and 0.9840. The low for March is 0.9841 and therefore is the official low of this sideways range.

On March 23 the pair reached the 1.0034 marking the high of the range. Therefore, a breakout of either level––0.9841 or 1.0034––could be significant and provides a target of … 193 pips +/- the breakout price. Therefore, an upside breakout of the range would target the 1.02 region, a breakout lower the 0.9650 region.

If a breakout occurs, there is also likely to be resistance at 1.0160 and 1.0250 and potential support at 0.9724 (August 31, swing low).

Currently the pair trades near 0.98 and as indicated there is support below at 0.9724 on the way to a potential target of 0.9650.

This pair has been so choppy that even given this breakout I prefer to stay away. Volatility is low, 68 pips per day, and while that may increase there are better opportunities elsewhere (see pairs above).

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Regards,

Cory Mitchell, CMT