11 Market Myths — Are You Falling Prey?
|April 18, 2012||Posted by admin under Economic Data, Intro to Trading, Stocks & Stock Market Analysis, Techncial Analysis Tutorials||
There are loads of market myths. Take “Cash on sidelines” for instance…makes me shudder just typing it.
Currently working on my own “trading myths” article I came across this brief piece (originally published in 2010) which very succinctly takes care of the “cash on the sidelines” myth. My skin crawls when I hear those words and it seems to have become a sort of catch phrase for economists and TV personalities.
One of the first things learned in economics or mentioned in almost any trading book is that the stock market leads the economy. Economists, traders and even reporters seem to agree on this point…why then I wonder do they continue to point to fundamental indicators expecting them to support or lead the stock market? Admittedly I fall prey to this type of thinking at times too, it is an easy trap to fall into…the compulsion to rationalize.
Being aware of common market myths can help avoid the “rationalization” type thinking prevalent in society–rationalizations which lead to a herding mentality and buying and selling at exactly the wrong time.
11 Commonplace Market Views: True or Market Myth?
[Originally published: ]February 17, 2010
By Susan C. Walker
“Cash on the sidelines is bullish for stocks.” Have you ever heard some stock market pundit utter these words? Have you ever wondered if the statement were true? Read this item from the latest issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, and you’ll wonder no more:
Market Myths — Cash on the sidelines is bullish for stocks. This refrain rang like a gong all the way through the declines of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009. In February 2000, when mutual fund cash hit 4.2% (compared to 3.8% in November), The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast issued its “cash is king” advice. Once again, the word on the street is that there is way too much “cash on the sidelines” for stocks to fall precipitously. This chart shows net cash available to investors plotted beneath the DJIA. In December 2007, available net cash expanded to a new high, besting all extremes since at least 1992, a 15-year time span. Despite the presence of this mountain of cash, the DJIA lost more than half its entire value over the next 15 months. Indeed, as the chart shows, cash remained high right as the stock market entered the most intense part of the crash in 2008. Available cash does correlate with the market’s moves, but the market is in charge, not the cash.
--The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, Jan. 29, 2010
Now take a look at these 10 statements and decide if they are true:
- Earnings drive stock prices.
- Small stocks are the place to be.
- Worry about inflation rather than deflation.
- It’s enough to simply beat the market.
- To do well investing, you have to diversify.
- The FDIC can protect depositors.
- It’s bullish when the market ignores bad news.
- Bubbles can unwind slowly.
- People can make money speculating.
- News and events drive the markets.
Bob Prechter and our other analysts have debunked each of these statements as a market myth. You can discover how we exposed these ideas as myths, and in turn make more informed decisions about your investing.
We’ve gathered the writings that expose these 10 statements as market myths in our 33-page eBook, called Market Myths Exposed. They come from two of our premier publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, as well as two of our books, Prechter’s Perspective and The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.
Get Market Myths Exposed for FREE
The 33-page eBook takes the 10 most dangerous investment myths head on and exposes the truth about each in a way every investor can understand. You will uncover important myths about diversifying your portfolio, the safety of your bank deposits, earnings reports, investment bubbles, inflation and deflation, small stocks, speculation, and more! Protect your financial future and change the way you view your investments forever! Learn more, and get your free eBook here.
Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company.