EUR/USD-Fails to Break Critical 1.3800

The following is your daily EUR/USD outlook for March 16.

Like a child who refuses to clean his room, the EUR/USD also refuses to move with conviction.  Yesterday I posted that a pullback into the 1.3700 region was expected but movements much lower indicate a further move down may ensue. So far the pair has pullback as far as 1.3640.  Additional support comes in at 1.3620.

In recent price action we do have higher highs and higher lows indicating the start of uptrend.  For this (short-term uptrend) to continue the pair will need to stay above 1.3550.  A drop below that indicates a bull trap and a re-test of range lows at 1.3430.  The “saucer” like formation starting from early February makes that scenario less likely than a move higher.

Ultimately 1.3800 remains the level to watch (on the upside) as stated yesterday.  Even though some swing highs were broken on Friday resistance remains at 1.3800 and just below 1.3850.    Prior to this minor resistance is now likely at 1.3730-1.3740.

The pair trades at 1.3675 at the time of this writing.

Fed day today. Be prepared as this could be the catalyst of a trend.

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

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