EUR/USD – Lower Highs…but Lower Lows?

The following is your daily EUR/USD analysis for March 2.

The EUR/USD continues to float between important levels, but will not move beyond in either direction.  We have a short-term range, but longer term the EUR/USD is not a range trading currency pair.

Overall the pair remains in a downtrend. This will not be challenged until the pair gets over current resistance at 1.3700 followed by further resistance at 1.3800.  The trendline approximately intersects this level.   False breakout are a high probability.  A break above 1.3700 accompanied by a pullback and then a renewed push higher would provide further confirmation of a continued upward correction.  Interim resistance comes in at 1.3740-50 and 1.3780.

Significant support on the downside remains between 1.3460-1.3440.  Levels between this and 1.3700 are not high probability support/resistance levels.

The swing highs are moving lower, but so far the swing lows have not moved lower since Feb 19.  A move above a swing high (1.3700) points to a further move higher.  After not making new swing highs a move lower below the swing low (1.3440) would indicate another leg down.

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