S&P 500 – Outlook for Stock Market, Week of March 1 – 5

The following is the outlook for the S&P 500 heading into next week, March 1-5.

The way the market is right now is what I talk about in this weeks newsletter (sign up along the right hand side…it’s free).  Movements have been somewhat erratic, unless a trader is very skilled they can easily get whipsawed in this market.  We had the decline in late January and early February, now we have rallied back and sit basically in the center of that former decline.  What is interesting and what makes the short-term outlook uncertain is that we have exceed the 1104 – 1105 brief rally high on February2 .  Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday last week we moved through that point everyday.  Thursday had its own interesting action needless to say.

So we sit at a  point where short-term probabilities are about equal for moving up or down.  Luckily there is no need to predict anything to make money.  Rather we let the market lead by only stepping in in force when the market has given us reason to believe there is a higher probability it will move a certain direction.

1115 is resistance on the upside.  A break above indicates strength and with little resistance until 1130-1132 our target is 1130.  A drop back below 1115 before a target is hit shows some indecision and that the choppy trading is likely to continue.  Beyond 1132 resistance is at 1150.

The weekly average range for the S&P stands at about 31 points.  The range that is covered this week will fall short or be greater than this average number, but it does give us an indication of what kind of levels are likely to be within (or outside) target range in the upcoming week.

Thursday’s low at 1086 is a level to watch, a drop below that bearish and will likely reach support at 1080.  Below 1080 we have a collection of days which ranged between 1080-1060 so this is another areas which could get choppy unless we have a swift move through it. Further support comes in at 1056 and 1045.

Since Feb. 5 we have a short-term uptrend.

S&P 500 Daily, FreeStockCharts

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Cory Mitchell, CMT

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